The New England Patriots announced their return to postseason relevance with authority. They just earned their first playoff victory since the 2018 NFL playoffs in a convincing 16-3 Wild Card win over the Los Angeles Chargers. The performance underscored the rapid transformation under Mike Vrabel. Now, New England finds itself chasing a deeper January run. They have a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line for the first time since Tom Brady’s penultimate season in Foxborough.
Standing in their path is a Houston Texans team built on defensive dominance. The Texans overwhelmed the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6 in the Wild Card Round. Houston's defense delivered two fourth-quarter touchdowns to break the game open after an uneven offensive showing. Now, the Texans seek to break through a franchise barrier by advancing past the divisional round for the first time. They want to extend a postseason surge that has already produced playoff victories in each of DeMeco Ryans’ first three seasons at the helm.
Patriots vs. Texans betting odds
Patriots: -3, -120
Texans: +3, +100
Over: 40.5, -109
Under: 40.5, -110
(All odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Patriots vs. Texans key injuries for AFC Divisional Round
Patriots: CB Christian Gonzalez (concussion), TE Hunter Henry (knee), LB Anfernee Jennings (knee), RB Terrell Jennings (concussion), LB Harold Landry (knee), DL Khyiris Tonga (foot), OL Morgan Moses (knee), OL Thayer Munford Jr (knee)
Texans: WR Nico Collins (concussion), DE Denico Autry (knee), OL Trent Brown (ankle), WR Justin Watson (concussion), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee), OL Tytus Howard (ankle), OL Ed Ingram (ankle), RB Jawhar Jordan (ankle), CB Kamari Lassiter (ankle, knee), DL Sheldon Rankins (elbow)
Patriots vs. Texans betting trends
The Patriots and Texans have played each other 12 times from 2012 onwards. The Patriots carry the head-to-head matchup lead, with nine wins and only three defeats over those games. Houston, however, has had more success in their recent matchups. The Texans have won three of their last four meetings with the Patriots. Their latest win was back in Week 6 of the 2024 season, 41-21. The Patriots, however, have averaged +7.5 more points per game in all those matchups. Entering the AFC Divisional Round, both teams are on win streaks. New England has on its last four games, including a 16-3 triumph over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round. Meanwhile, the Texans have not lost a game since Week 9. They enter this game confident after a 30-6 Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Several betting trends do indicate that this will be a tightly contested game:
- The Patriots have won each of their last eight Divisional Round games.
- The Texans have won the first half in each of their last eight games.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 road games when playing with
- Each of the Texans' last five road games have gone under the total points line.
2025 records:
New England, 15-3 straight up, 13-5 ATS; Houston, 13-5 straight up, 10-8 ATS
Over/Under
New England 11-7; Houston, 6-11-1
Keys to Patriots vs. Texans matchup
Patriots
Offensive line play:
The Patriots’ offense can hum through the air. They ranked fourth in passing during the regular season. It all hinges on protection, though. If the offensive line struggles as it did last week, Houston’s pass rush could take over the game.
Run game efficiency:
New England finished sixth in rushing yards. They will lean heavily on that strength. Sustaining drives on the ground can shorten the game and limit Houston’s opportunities.
Containment on defense:
Allowing just 18.8 points per game in the regular season, the Patriots’ defense thrives on discipline and turnovers. Forcing mistakes and keeping explosive plays in check will be critical.
Texans
Win the turnover battle:
Houston’s defense changed the Steelers game by forcing turnovers and scoring. Replicating that formula, especially by baiting Maye into tight-window throws, gives the Texans their best path to an upset.
Defensive dominance:
The Texans finished the regular season with the NFL’s top-ranked total defense. Stopping the run and creating long third downs would put New England in uncomfortable situations.
Offensive resiliency:
With Collins potentially sidelined, Houston’s offense must be resourceful. CJ Stroud's poise and decision-making will matter more than volume as the Texans look to complement their defense just enough to win.
Patriots vs. Texans prediction and pick
Houston has won 10 straight games and hasn’t lost since Week 9. Can that streak continue on the road against a disciplined Patriots team? Yes, but it will require another elite defensive performance and a clean, efficient outing from Stroud. New England’s experience and structure make this a grind. That said, Houston’s defense is good enough to swing the outcome.
Final score prediction: Texans 20, Patriots 17
Spread: Texans +3
Over/Under: Under 40.5
