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The Boston Celtics have passed all of their tests so far in the 2023-24 campaign with flying colors to this point, setting the stage for a battle against the Dallas Mavericks in the 2024 NBA Finals. Everything the Celtics have accomplished to this point is great, but unless the season ends with them hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy, it will undoubtedly be considered a failure.
The C's ran the table in the regular season, posting a 64-18 record, which was tops in the NBA. While they have admittedly not faced an outrageously taxing path to the Finals, they have gone 12-2 so far in the postseason, sending the likes of the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Indiana Pacers home for the offseason. And now, it all comes down to one best-of-seven series against the Mavs.
This is going to be Boston's biggest challenge yet, and the same is true for Dallas. Whichever team ends up rising to the challenge will be the one that comes out victorious. Tip off for Game 1 is set for 8:30 PM EST on Thursday night, so with a bit more time to dissect the matchup before it officially gets underway, let's take a look at the three biggest keys to victory for the Celtics in this series.
Jrue Holiday and Derrick White must play All-NBA defense for Celtics
For the most part, the Celtics backcourt of Jrue Holiday and Derrick White has been everything the team hoped they would be. By effectively replacing Marcus Smart with Holiday, Boston has a pair of versatile two-way guards who are excellent defenders and have consistently delivered in big ways on offense throughout these playoffs so far.
Both Holiday and White earned a spot on the NBA All-Defensive Second Team this season, and they will both have to be at their best, particularly on defense, if Boston wants to win this series. While the Celtics have the league's best defensive backcourt duo, the Mavs have the best offensive backcourt duo in the league in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
White will likely spend most of his time shadowing Irving in this series, while Holiday will split time with Jaylen Brown when it comes to guarding Doncic. Both of these guys are going to get their points one way or another, but if Holiday and White can find a way to keep one of them quiet for an extended stretch of time, that will open the door for the Celtics to make some big runs that could end up winning games for them.
Joe Mazzulla can't get shy with his management of Kristaps Porzingis
The biggest injury-related storyline heading into this series revolves around star big man Kristaps Porzingis, who hasn't played since Game 4 of the Celtics first-round series against the Heat after he suffered a right soleus strain. Porzingis has been closing in on a return for a couple weeks now, and he all but confirmed he will be on the court on Thursday night for Game 1 against the Mavericks.
Boston thrived without Porzingis, losing just one of the ten games he has missed so far this postseason, but they are going to need him if they want to beat Dallas. The Celtics interior defense struggled without their best paint defender, particularly against the Pacers, and their offense has gone through lulls where they clearly miss having Porzingis as an option in the post, or as a shooter at the perimeter creating space for the rest of the offense.
How the Celtics (or more particularly Joe Mazzulla) manage Porzingis in this series is crucial. You'd obviously rather have him on the court than on the bench, and there really shouldn't be any limits on him, even as he returns from an injury; this is the NBA Finals after all. Of course, that statement is a double-edged sword, because if Porzingis struggles in his return to the floor, Mazzulla can't exactly wait around for him to figure things out.
Thankfully, Boston has Al Horford waiting in the wings if needed, and he's had some huge games to help the C's get to this spot, namely Game 5 against the Cavs and Game 3 against the Pacers. In an ideal world, Porzingis returns and plays like the best version of himself, but Mazzulla cannot be afraid to turn to Horford over Porzingis in this series if he needs to with a championship on the line.
Can Celtics outduel Mavericks in clutch minutes?
The biggest concern entering the postseason for the Celtics was their ability to deliver in crunch time. They really weren't challenged a bunch in the regular season, which led to clutch minutes being at a premium for this team. And when they did play in these big moments, their offense spent a lot of time reverting to their isolation-heavy style from previous seasons.
The good news is that Boston has won each of their four clutch games in the postseason, with three of them coming in their previous series against the Pacers. The Celtics have admittedly had a major edge over each of their three opponents so far, but they did exactly what they needed to do in each of these contests on both sides of the ball in order to come out victorious.
The bad news is that the Mavs have one of the best closing combos in the league in Doncic and Irving. They also have a defense that is exceptional at limiting isolation-heavy offenses. If Boston's offense stagnates late in these games, there's no doubt that Doncic and Irving are going to make them pay on the other end of the floor.
The Celtics proved against the Pacers that they can properly execute late in games in order to grind out wins, but doing that against Indiana and Dallas are two completely different things. This is not a series where either team is going to blow the other out of the water, meaning there will almost certainly be multiple games that come down to the wire. It's not a stretch to suggest that whichever team wins these clutch minutes will win the series, and if that's the case, it may take Boston overcoming their biggest perceived weakness in order to win this series.
