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Kevin Durant's return from a ruptured achilles over the past two seasons has been quite impressive. Durant hasn't lost a step, proving that he is still one of the league's elite scorers. It didn't lead to much success with the Brooklyn Nets last season, but that wasn't really Durant's fault.
Last season, Durant was the Nets only source of consistency. James Harden forced his way out of Brooklyn, Kyrie Irving couldn't play in home games because of his COVID-19 vaccination status, and Ben Simmons never ended up playing for the Nets after he landed there at the trade deadline. Durant shouldered a huge burden, and it resulted in a very good season for the star forward.
Durant should have more help this upcoming season, but that doesn't mean that he won't put up big numbers again for the Nets. In the fantasy basketball world, that makes Durant an extremely enticing pick, and it's not surprising to see him be one of the first names off of draft boards this season. Let's take a closer look at Durant's fantasy outlook for the upcoming season and see what owners should expect of him this year.
Kevin Durant's 2022-23 fantasy basketball outlook
Kevin Durant will enter the upcoming season as the Nets top option on offense. Durant took on a bigger load with Irving, Harden, and Simmons all missing considerable time for Brooklyn last season, and he excelled. He may have to do the same thing this season, but Durant's scoring efficiency makes him a strong fantasy option for any fantasy owner.
To understand what Durant will be capable of this season, it's important to know what he did last season. The conversation with Durant always starts with his scoring, and last season was one of the best seasons of Durant's career. Durant's 29.9 points per game was the highest average he had since the 2013-14 season when he led the league with 32 points per game and won the league's MVP award. That's pretty impressive considering that was nearly ten years ago.
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Durant slowed down in the playoffs against the Boston Celtics, as he averaged 26.3 points per game on just 38.6 percent shooting from the field. The Celtics devoted much of their defensive gameplan to slowing down Durant, and chances are that won't happen every game this season, but it was a bit concerning to see him look mortal for the first time since he returned from his achilles injury.
Durant's ability to score in bunches and with great efficiency (he's shot over 50 percent from the floor in his last nine campaigns) make him a top fantasy option right off the bat. Durant's height also makes him a strong rebounder, and his 6.4 assists per game last season were a career high, although that number will likely dip with Irving and Simmons back on the court.
Assuming Durant can hover around 27 points per game, seven rebounds per game, and five assists per game, he will be one of the top fantasy basketball options this upcoming season. Having Irving and Simmons back alongside him will cut into his production from last season, but he's still going to average close to 20 shots per game, and if he shoots 50 percent from the floor, that's going to result in a lot of fantasy points.
As previously mentioned, the top concern for Kevin Durant's fantasy output is the return of Irving and Simmons. Irving takes a lot of shots per game himself, and Simmons will likely be the Nets top facilitator. Durant also has only played in 90 games over the past two seasons, so he will likely miss his fair share of time throughout the season.
Still, Durant is easily a top 15 player who is hovering around the top 10 range. If Durant can stay healthy and produce like he did last season, he's easily a top ten player, but that shouldn't influence your draft strategy when it comes to Durant.
Many people will see Durant's name and bite on him earlier than they should, meaning if you have a smarter draft strategy, there's a decent chance you won't land him. Durant is a borderline first round pick right now, but he's probably better served being an early second round pick. Chances are he won't make it there, and unless you feel very strongly about him staying healthy this season, there are better players to use your first round pick on.
If you end up with Durant, he will produce, but there's a decent chance you will have to use a first round pick on him to land him. If you are picking in the ninth or tenth spot, Durant isn't a bad guy to take, but you may have better options to take other than him. Kevin Durant isn't the safest bet in fantasy basketball, but if he falls to you, he will end up being one of the top players on your team.
