It might be hard to remember now, but once upon a time, the Golden State Warriors had high hopes for the 2025-26 season. Their 2025 NBA playoff run ended in the second round, but that was mostly due to Stephen Curry's hamstring injury that the Dubs didn't force him to return prematurely from.
However, the Warriors' injury problems just went from bad to worse this season. In fact, their injury situation has been one straight out of their nightmares. First, Jimmy Butler goes down with a torn ACL due to a bit of an errant pass from Brandin Podziemski. And now, Curry is dealing with persistent knee issues that are unlikely to get better from here on out considering that he's already 38 years of age.
The Dubs then compounded matters by acquiring Kristaps Porzingis, a man who's dealing with chronic illness, and veteran big man Al Horford is on the sidelines as well. Ditto for Moses Moody.
As a result, the Warriors have fallen off a cliff, and are now the 10th-placed team in the Western Conference with a 33-36 record. This is not at all what the Dubs imagined their 2025-26 season would look like, and considering the uncertainty in Curry's injury situation, there isn't looking to be much hope available for the team as far as their contending dreams go this year.
The Warriors will at least be hoping to make the most of an eventual return from Curry and at least qualify for the playoffs. However, things can always go from bad to worse in the NBA.
Warriors' nightmare scenario: Staying in 10th, bowing out in 9/10 play-in game
If there's a silver lining to the Warriors' current situation, it's that they would have to try and lose intentionally for them to fall out of the play-in tournament picture altogether. There are only 13 games in the Dubs' season, and they are ahead of the 11th-placed Memphis Grizzlies by 8.5 games in the win-loss column.
Not only is that an insurmountable deficit for the Grizzlies to make up, Memphis also has no incentive to do so considering that they've embarked on a major rebuild.
However, that provides mere cold comfort. They have gone just 2-8 in their past 10 games. They have been putting together a ragtag group on a nightly basis, and they have been playing from behind on most nights. Curry is drawing near a return, but there is no concrete timeline yet for when he'll be back.
Another piece of good news is that the Dubs' remaining schedule is not very difficult. They have the 22nd-most difficult schedule left, as per Tankathon, with only six of their last 13 games coming against teams above .500. However, both the Los Angeles Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers, teams they're fighting for in the battle for the eighth seed, somehow have easier schedules.
Combining this and Curry's absence, it's difficult to back the Warriors as the favorite for the eighth or even the ninth seed. The Clippers have hit another rough patch (at least it seems like they have), and Bennedict Mathurin will be on the sidelines for an indefinite period of time, but they have Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland healthy. Meanwhile, the Blazers have Deni Avdija up and running, as he's played in all of their past six games.
It would be a nightmare for the Warriors to end up with the 10th seed. For starters, that would force them to play their 9/10 play-in game on the road. This season, the Warriors have a 14-21 record away from Chase Center (compared to 19-15 at home). Facing a must-win situation without the support of the home crowd doesn't sound very appealing.
Of course, the Warriors have the experience advantage over the Blazers, and once Curry returns, they can certainly go toe to toe with the Clippers. The Warriors have also gone a combined 2-5 against both of those teams this season.
So to recap, they are facing teams they've struggled against this year, with the potential of doing so on the road, in a do-or-die situation. And if they do end up winning that 9/10 game, they need to win another game, which will be on the road once more, just so they could book a first-round matchup against the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder.
Even then, that is miles more appealing than the nightmare situation, which is that they'd exit the postseason without a single win to their name. This just signals that the end of an era is truly here for the Warriors, as if that hasn't come already.
