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The upcoming Eastern Conference Finals clash between the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks is too close to call. The Pacers have ridden a blistering end to the regular season all the way to the ECF, and their series victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games shows that they have a much more well-oiled machine this year than they did last year. Meanwhile, the Knicks were set to go up 3-1 in their series against the Boston Celtics even before Jayson Tatum unfortunately tore his Achilles.
There is not much separating these two sides, and the historic bad blood between these two franchises means that fans should be in for a treat as both teams look to snap lengthy NBA Finals appearance droughts. Alas, the three games between the two teams in the regular season ended up not being close, with the Knicks winning two out of their three matchups.
Jalen Brunson remains a tough matchup for the Pacers, while Karl-Anthony Towns popped off for 40 points during their final meeting of the year. The Knicks' top-end talent is better than the Pacers', although Indiana makes up for it with the numbers game — they've been running a 10-man rotation all playoffs long and, over the course of a long series, could end up winning the war of attrition.
Here are three reasons why the Pacers will upset the Knicks, although it shouldn't count as such considering the Pacers won just one fewer regular-season game than the Knicks this season.
Pacers' depth could end up stealing a few games
The theme of this year's playoffs has been war of attrition; the Denver Nuggets fell in the end because they did not have enough rotation players to give Nikola Jokic sufficient rest without falling apart, while the Golden State Warriors saw Stephen Curry go down with a hamstring injury that completely derailed their chances of winning a ring.
For the Pacers, they do play their starting five a heavy amount of minutes. But they still rely on their five bench players to fill in and play important minutes without being scared of giving up a huge run to the opposition. This can end up being the major difference between them and a Knicks team that relies on seven rotation players at most whenever the game is close.
By and large, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart are iron men. But Jalen Brunson has faced ankle issues in the past, while OG Anunoby's injury swung the series between the Pacers and Knicks last year in Indiana's favor. And with the heavy workload they're about to carry, there is a chance that some wear and tear end up costing the Knicks.
If the series goes the distance like many believe it could due to the razor-thin margins between the two teams, then the Knicks could find themselves at a disadvantage if the Pacers end up being more rested, especially when games in the Conference Finals only have one day of rest in between.
Knicks have defensive weak spots the Pacers can attack
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As great as Towns and Brunson are on the offensive end, they have their fair share of shortcomings on defense. Towns is not the best positionally even though he battles hard, he is not the quickest on his feet on the perimeter, and he doesn't have the best timing when it comes to contesting shots at the basket.
Meanwhile, Brunson, despite being a fighter, is a small guard the Pacers can target on switches. Bridges, Hart, and Anunoby will fight tooth and nail to prevent Brunson from being exposed on an island, but Tyrese Haliburton, a master defensive manipulator, can bend defenses to his will when he's at his best.
The Pacers have their fair share of defensive question marks. Andrew Nembhard might be too small and too weak to deal with Brunson. Aaron Nesmith could end up being overtaxed with the defensive burden he's about to carry. Haliburton can be a sieve at times. But in a series expected to give everyone offensive fireworks, having better execution could end up being the difference — and Haliburton, as the league's current Point God, will have the Pacers exploiting the weak spots in the Knicks' defense as well as they can.
Indiana is perhaps the most unselfish, unflappable team we've seen in a while
The Pacers are playing for each other to a degree that perhaps hasn't been seen since the 2014 San Antonio Spurs. They lead all teams in this year's playoffs with an average of 29.7 assists on 43.1 made field-goals per ballgame, a testament to how the ball keeps on moving, trading off good shots for great looks.
They are also calm under crisis; they've come back from seven down in the final minute of two playoff games and won. The expectation is that there will be many close games in this series, and that's where the Pacers' composure comes in, allowing them to overcome adversity and triumph against the Knicks en route to their first NBA Finals appearance since 2000.
