The New Orleans Pelicans enter the 2025-26 NBA season with an identity crisis, a disoriented fanbase, and a schedule that does them no favors. Coming off a brutal 21-61 campaign, the Pelicans were desperate for direction, clarity, and some form of stability. Instead, they doubled down on confusion. General manager Joe Dumars and the revamped front office have made moves that many analysts, including ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, have labeled as baffling.

The drafting of Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen, along with the trade that cost New Orleans a potentially valuable 2026 pick swap, has created skepticism about the franchise’s long-term vision. Add to that the polarizing acquisition of Jordan Poole and a logjam in the frontcourt with Queen, Kevon Looney, and Zion Williamson, and the Pelicans find themselves staring at a difficult road ahead.

Yet the beauty of the NBA is its unpredictability. For all the head-scratching decisions, the Pelicans will still take the court 82 times. The question is whether this roster can find any semblance of cohesion and claw its way back into relevance, or whether 2025-26 will be another painful chapter in a franchise history already full of false starts.

What will the Pelicans’ 2025-26 record be?

Last season’s 21-61 disaster cannot be ignored. Injuries, poor roster balance, and inconsistency defined New Orleans’ year. The addition of Poole theoretically gives them a dynamic scoring guard, but the downside is enormous. Poole has yet to prove he can be an efficient lead guard on a playoff-caliber team, and pairing him with Zion and a glut of centers raises serious spacing concerns.

The Pelicans’ schedule is particularly unkind in the early months. By December, New Orleans will have faced contenders like Boston, Denver, Golden State, and Milwaukee multiple times. An inexperienced team with shaky chemistry could quickly fall into another double-digit losing streak. Even against middle-tier opponents such as Dallas or Minnesota, the Pelicans’ lack of defensive identity could be exposed.

There will be flashes of excitement. Zion, if healthy, remains one of the league’s most dominant interior forces. Meanwhile, Fears could surprise as a rookie guard with poise. But the lack of shooting around the stars and the unclear pecking order will likely sink New Orleans more often than not.

The prediction: the Pelicans finish with a 25-57 record. That’s a modest four-win improvement from last season, but still firmly at the bottom of the Western Conference.

Where will the Pelicans land in the West?

The Western Conference has no mercy for a team in flux. The Nuggets, Timberwolves, Thunder, and Mavericks are firmly in the upper tier. The Suns, Clippers, and Warriors are all in win-now mode. Even rebuilding squads like the Spurs and Jazz appear to have more structure in place than the Pelicans.

For New Orleans, that means their ceiling is finishing around 13th in the West, above only a team like Portland or Houston if injuries decimate those rosters. The floor is obvious: another last-place finish. Realistically, they’ll land 14th, narrowly avoiding the basement but never sniffing the play-in tournament.

What are New Orleans' playoff chances?

There will be no playoff basketball in New Orleans this season. The play-in cut-off typically requires at least 38-40 wins in the Western Conference, and the Pelicans aren’t remotely close to that level of competitiveness. Even in the most optimistic scenario, Zion stays healthy, Poole rediscovers his Warriors form, and Fears emerges as a rookie standout, New Orleans would struggle to reach 35 wins.

The playoffs will instead be something the Pelicans watch from afar, yet again asking themselves if this core is worth maintaining.

Predictions beyond the court

If the season plays out as expected, there will be consequences beyond the standings. Front office and coaching changes are squarely on the horizon.

Head coach Willie Green has done his best with difficult rosters, but patience could wear thin. Another season with fewer than 30 wins may force Dumars to pull the plug and bring in a new voice. If not midseason, then certainly next summer, Green’s seat will be scorching hot.

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Trades are also inevitable. Kevon Looney could also be shipped out if the frontcourt rotation becomes unmanageable.

There’s also a real chance Jordan Poole himself becomes trade bait. If he flames out in New Orleans and continues to play inefficient basketball, the Pelicans may look to cut bait sooner rather than later. Ironically, the very player they are “betting on” could be their quickest departure.

What are the potential awards or bright spots?

The Pelicans are unlikely to produce award winners this year, but there are slivers of hope worth mentioning. Jeremiah Fears could sneak into the Rookie of the Year conversation if given steady minutes, particularly if he’s trusted to stabilize the backcourt when Poole struggles. Derik Queen, despite the skepticism surrounding his selection, has the tools to carve out a solid rookie campaign as a rebounder and interior scorer.

Zion remains the only true candidate for leaguewide recognition. If he stays healthy, which has always been the biggest “if” in the NBA, he could find himself in the All-Star mix again. But that requires him to play at least 60 games, a mark he has rarely reached.

The long-term picture

The harsh truth is that the Pelicans’ long-term outlook looks bleaker now than it did a year ago. The loss of the 2026 pick swap to Atlanta could haunt them for years, particularly if the Bucks falter and the Pelicans themselves remain near the bottom of the standings. In essence, New Orleans may have sacrificed a premium draft asset for a redundant big man in Derik Queen.

The Zion question also looms. How many more seasons of underachievement can the franchise endure before considering the unthinkable trading its franchise cornerstone? That scenario isn’t likely this season, but every year of mediocrity edges them closer to that possibility.

Is this a season of limited hope for the Pelicans?

The New Orleans Pelicans enter 2025-26 not as a playoff threat, but as a team wandering through another year of uncertainty. A predicted record of 25-57 feels generous given the roster’s flaws, and a 14th-place finish in the West would represent marginal progress at best. Without playoff hopes, the season will be defined by the growth of rookies like Fears and Queen, the health of Zion, and the potential reshuffling of the roster through trades.

What makes this prediction particularly disheartening is that the Pelicans had opportunities to chart a clearer course. Instead, their offseason decisions compounded existing issues, leaving fans skeptical and analysts unimpressed. For a franchise desperate for stability, the coming season may only reinforce the perception that New Orleans is stuck in the mud.

The 2025-26 season won’t be about championships or even contention. It will be about survival, assessment, and the painful process of deciding what the future should look like in the Big Easy.