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ESPN NBA analyst Brian Windhorst is at it again. This isn’t exactly his now-famous finger-waving rambling from last offseason that preceded the stunning Rudy Gobert trade. But his suggestion that Kyrie Irving is trying to drum up interest from the Philadelphia 76ers that would lead to a Dallas Mavericks trade for James Harden is intriguing. And it leads to the question, how would a James Harden-Kyrie Irving Sixers-Mavs trade actually work?
How a James Harden-Kyrie Irving Sixers-Mavs trade would work
Asking how a James Harden-Kyrie Irving Sixers-Mavs trade would work is a bit of a double entendre.
On the one hand, there is how it would work from a mechanics perspective that would allow the two teams to swap these big-money players with different free-agent statuses. We’ll explain that here.
On the other hand, there is the question of how would this trade work for all thez teams and players involved? That’s a more difficult question to answer, but we will try and give some answers — or at least predictions — to that one as well.
First, let’s discuss how the trade would work in practice.
Harden opted-in to the final year of his current contract so he would need the Sixers to trade him to get out of Philly. Irving is currently an unrestricted free agent, so he can sign with any team he wants. However, because he was last under contract with the Mavs, Dallas has the ability to pay him the most money and go over the salary cap to do so.
In order to get close to top-dollar as a free agent, Irving would have to sign with a team with a lot of cap space, and only the Houston Rockets have that kind of room this NBA offseason.
So, unless he wants to take a massive pay cut, Irving has to re-sign with the Mavs. However, that doesn’t mean he has to play with the Mavs next season.
The maximum deal Irving can sign with the Mavs is a four-year, 198.5 million contract. Next season, he’d make around $45.4 million with that extension.
With the contract that Harden opted into, he will make $35.6 million next season. Those salaries are close enough that a straight-up James Harden-Kyrie Irving Sixers-Mavs trade would work out financially.
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Whether the Sixers want to give Irving the full max extension or whether either side would have to throw in some other players or draft picks is something the general managers — Nico Harrison for Dallas and Daryl Morey for the Sixers — would have to work out.
That said, the bones of a straight swap are there, and the teams could make it happen with an Irving sign-and-trade. There are other potential wrinkles to this like a three-team trade involving the Los Angeles Clippers with Irving going to the Sixers, Harden going to the Clips, and Paul George moving to the Mavs. But for now, let’s look at the potential ramifications of a simple James Harden-Kyrie Irving Sixers-Mavs trade.
From a fit perspective, the Sixers probably get the better end of this deal. Irving, when right, is a traditional scoring point guard, and should be able to fit in nicely with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris.
Down in Dallas, it’s hard to imagine two slow, ball-dominant scorers like Harden and Luke Doncic playing with each other. Doncic was second in the league in usage rate last season, with a 37.6 mark. Harden actually had two of the lowest usage rates of his career the last two seasons in Philly (24.9, 25.0), but he’s led the league in this category twice and has a career usage rate of 30.0.
Still, for the small time that Harden, Irving, and Kevin Durant played together in Brooklyn, Harden changed his game the most. Maybe he could do the same playing next to Luka in Dallas.
The other thing to consider is the headache both these players cause. Yes, Harden has asked out of three franchises in the last three years, but he’s also had a relatively quiet last two seasons in Philly. When Harden is happy, he can keep it together for a bit. Plus, when he goes, it is usually relatively quietly.
On the flip side, Irving has destroyed several franchises in his career, and each season seems to bring more and more drama and less and less time on the court. If I had to pick one of these two to hitch my team’s wagon to next season, it would be Harden.
Who knows if the Mavs feel the same way? The most likely outcome is that Harden gets traded somewhere else, and Irving re-ups with the Mavs. But for now, when Brian Windhorst says something like this, it’s fun to think about.
