Alabama went nearly twenty years between regular-season titles in the SEC. After winning the regular season in 2002, they would not do it again until 2021, and then again in 2023. The team also won the conference tournament in 2021 and 2023, but prior to that, it was 1991. It has been an up-and-down campaign for Alabama thus far, as they are 16-7, and just 6-4 in conference play. If they are going to make a run to the SEC title, they have one fatal flaw to fix.
While Alabama is 16-7, they struggled early in the season with quality teams. They opened up 7-3, with wins over St. John's and Illinois, but falling to Purdue, Gonzaga, and Arizona. In SEC play, it has been a mixed bag of results. They have a win over Kentucky, which is tied for second in the conference. They also have wins over Missouri and Texas A&M. Still, they have struggled with the top end of the conference, with losses to Vanderbilt, Florida, and Tennessee.
The Tide are known for its offense. They are second in the nation in points per game this year. They are first in three pointers made per game, and first in attempts. This has led to Alabama being ranked second in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. Part of the success comes from the tempo at which they play. Alabama is fourth in the nation in adjusted tempo this season. While the tempo leads to some amazing point totals, it also could be what kills their chances in the SEC.
The Tide cannot worry about who is not on the court
Alabama cannot concern itself with who is not on the court right now, as they go through the stretch run of the season. The major player who may not be on the court is Charles Bediako, who has been ruled ineligible by the NCAA. The former G-League player played just five games with the Crimson Tide, but made an impact. He was averaging ten points with 4.6 rebounds per game.
Meanwhile, Alabama has also been dealing with injuries all year. Labaron Philon Jr. missed a game earlier this year and has been playing through a thigh bruise in recent games. He is the team's leading scorer. The second leading scorer is Aden Holloway, who has played just 19 of the 23 games and missed the recent loss to Tennessee. Further, fellow guard Latrell Wrightsell has missed six games this season.
One of the biggest players who has missed time recently is Amari Allen, who leads the team with 7.4 rebounds per game while scoring 11.7 points. He missed recent games with Tennessee and Missouri with an ankle injury. Only one player on the team has played all 23 games this year, and that is guard Houston Mallette, who averages 23.5 minutes per game.
Regardless of who is on or off the court, Alabama needs to find a way to be consistent game in and game out. Alabama has used 12 different starting lineups this year, the most in college basketball. Still, if they cannot find consistency, it could be a major issue, which only plays into their fatal flaw.
Alabama's rebounding will be its undoing
Alabama plays with a high tempo. This leads to plenty of shots. They take 66.6 field goal attempts per game, while giving up 68.3 attempts per game. Considering that, on average, just about 60 of those attempts are made, there are plenty of chances to grab rebounds. Alabama is 11th in the nation in rebounds per game, sitting eighth in defensive rebounds per game and 75th in offensive rebounds per game. Still, the rebounding rates are not nearly as good. Alabama is 157th in offensive rebounding percetnage, and 274th in defensive rebounding percentage. This means they are giving up a ton of second-chance opportunities to opponents.
Florida right now leads the conference, and already beaten Alabama this year, and is an example of why rebounding is going to be an issue for Alabama. Florida is the best rebounding team in the nation, while sitting second in offensive rebounding rate and third in defensive rebounding rate. They are also fifth in the nation in second-chance points this year. Against Alabama, they outrebounded the Crimson Tide 44-33. Further, of their 44 rebounds, 15 of them were offensive rebounds. The Gators went on to win the game by 23 points, 100-73.
Meanwhile, Alabama will have to overcome some other quality rebounding teams. Auburn is currently 23rd in offensive rebounds per game while sitting 16th in offensive rebounding rate. They are also 18th in second-chance points. Those two face off in the final game of the season on Mar. 7. Alabama just beat Auburn 96-92, and was solid on the glass in the game. They lost the rebounding battle, but just 35-30. They also shot 54 percent from the field, which is well above their season average.
If Alabama does not shoot well, it will give up plenty of rebounding opportunities. Combining that with their defensive rebounding struggles, it will put the team behind in games. While they have the ability to make comebacks, it can also be what ends their hopes against better teams.
