Loyola, UAB and other potential bid thieves during Champ Week

It took just two conference tournament championship games for a possible bid-thief to emerge this March. Drake entered the Missouri Valley Tournament with a decent at-large resume but one that was not quite good enough to put them in the field of 68. In the MVC title game, Drake defeated an Indiana State team hanging onto an at-large bid. The Bulldogs are in, and the Sycamores face a long wait until Selection Sunday. With a full week of conference tournaments still to play, numerous bid thieves lie waiting in the shadows, ready to pounce on a potential at-large bid.

Two leagues ripe for bid stealing are the Atlantic 10 and the American Athletic. Both leagues have a top team locked into an at-large bid but saw another program take home the regular season title. Loyola is among the A-10 teams with a strong shot at winning the league's auto-bid, while UAB is one of many AAC teams with good odds at winning the conference tournament. Find out which other teams are potential bid thieves during Champ Week.

ACC

Pittsburgh

Despite falling in the top 50 in the NET and KenPom rankings, Pittsburgh is included as an at-large selection in just five of 114 Bracket Matrix projections. A 2-6 record in Quad I games and a pair of Quad III home defeats will do that. But the Panthers won nine of 11 games to close out the season, earning them a handy double-bye in the ACC Tournament. Add an offense currently firing on all cylinders, and Pitt is a trendy pick to take home the ACC Title.

Atlantic 10

Loyola Chicago

Despite a spot in the AP Top 25 for most of the year, the Dayton Flyers finished third in the Atlantic 10 during the regular season — dropping their four toughest road games. Regular season champs Richmond are the current auto-qualifier in brackets but with eight of the league's 15 teams falling between 70 and 100 in the NET Rankings, any of these lurking squads could slither into March Madness. The A-10 is notorious for chaos and bid-thieves, and this year should be no different.

The Ramblers have won 10 of their last 11 contests and 17 of their last 20 on the back of a top-25 defense (24th per KenPom). Filtering for efficiency over the last 10 games, Bart Torvik's conference tournament simulator gives the Ramblers a 27.1% chance of winning the A-10 tournament — the best of any team in the league. Loyola is playing its best basketball at the best time of the year, making it a strong choice to win the league.

Massachusetts

Few A-10 teams have played better in the last month than UMass, which has won six of its last eight contests to jump to fourth place in the league. A top-four finish gives the Minutemen a double-bye in the conference tourney and a potential semifinal matchup against Richmond — a team they beat on the road on Valentine's Day. More importantly, they would avoid Dayton until the A-10 final.

With the 55th-ranked defense over its last 10 games, per Bart Torvik, UMass is a dark horse in the A-10 tourney.

VCU

A three-game skid to end the season should not overshadow the fact that the Rams took down Dayton and Richmond in the regular season — holding the Flyers to a season-low 47 points. VCU is a five-seed that UMass will not want to see in the quarterfinals.

Duquesne

Another A-10 team playing its best basketball late in the year, the Dukes won four straight to close out the year and went 10-3 after starting 0-5 in conference play. Duquesne is second in the league in defensive efficiency during A-10 play and has six seniors in its rotation, making this squad a difficult team to face.

American Athletic

Charlotte

The AAC is a haven for teams this year that are good but not great. Seven teams in this league currently populate the top 115 in the NET, but FAU is the only true at-large candidate and the only squad in the top 50. With the top four squads earning a double-bye to the conference tournament quarterfinals, many AAC teams will feel they have a shot at stealing a bid this year.

Charlotte earned the #3 seed on the back of a 13-5 showing in the league, including a home win over Florida Atlantic. The 49ers face a possible rematch against FAU in the semis and will look to rediscover the form that saw them win eight straight at the beginning of league play.

SMU

A team that the metrics have looked favorably upon this year despite a lack of quality wins is SMU. The Mustangs dropped narrow non-conference games to Wisconsin and Dayton and lost seven AAC games by an average of less than six points. The number-two AAC team in the NET and KenPom but is only six-seed in the conference tourney. Despite just a single bye, Bart Torvik's conference tournament simulator gives SMU the third-best odds of taking home the AAC tourney title at 17.3%

UAB

The Blazers earned the #4 seed despite being the seventh-best AAC team in the NET. UAB draws a tough likely quarterfinal matchup against Memphis but would avoid favorites FAU until the final. With wins over each of the other top seven teams in the league (except Charlotte), UAB will like its chances in the conference tournament.

Memphis

Wins over Texas A&M and Clemson show that Memphis can beat any team on any given day. Defeats to Rice and Tulane demonstrate that the Tigers can also lose to teams that are much worse on paper. This volatility makes Penny Hardaway's squad a dangerous and unpredictable team in the AAC tourney.

Big Ten

Ohio State

Ohio State has been a different team since the school fired Chris Holtmann. The Buckeyes have won five of their last six contests, including wins over NCAA Tournament teams in Purdue, Michigan State, and Nebraska. While the Buckeyes are the #10 seed, Bart Torvik gives OSU the best odds of any Big Ten team outside the top four to win the conference tournament based on recent performance (3.3%).

Mountain West

UNLV

Does any team in the country have a more confusing resume than UNLV? The Runnin' Rebels have wins over Creighton, Boise State, and San Diego State to go with home losses to Southern and Air Force, the latter a 32-point home defeat. But something clicked for UNLV after that embarrassing Air Force loss. The team has taken down 10 of its last 12 Mountain West foes, helping Kevin Kruger's team finish fourth in the MWC.

With the conference tournament in Las Vegas, UNLV will like its chances in a tournament where none of the top seven squads is a true favorite.

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