The second weekend of March Madness is almost here as just 16 teams are left, vying for a national title. There isn't a big Cinderella story this season with the exception of maybe Iowa in its first year under Ben McCollum. However, that means that the Sweet 16 features plenty of matchups between the best teams in college basketball, which should make for a dramatic set of games.
On Friday, top overall seed Duke will continue its march through the East region in the Sweet 16 against No. 5 seed St. John's. Duke survived a massive scare from Siena in the first round before pulling away from TCU in the second half to get to the second weekend. On the other side, St. John's followed up a blowout win over Northern Iowa with an epic win over Kansas on a buzzer-beater by Dylan Darling.
St. John's isn't your usual No. 5 seed. Rick Pitino has the Johnnies playing their best basketball at the moment and is looking to get them to the Final Four after sweeping the Big East Championships in the regular season and conference tournament play.
However, St. John's still enters this game as a heavy underdog against presumptive National Player of the Year Cameron Boozer and the No. 1 overall seed. Despite that, there is one thing that St. John's can take advantage of to make Duke uncomfortable and pull off the upset.
St. John's pressures the ball, which can bother Duke
The big injury coming into this game is to Duke starting point guard Caleb Foster, who has been out for a few weeks with a foot injury. Foster has an outside chance to return for the Sweet 16 game on Friday, but signs are still pointing to either Sunday or the Final Four as more likely times for his return.
Duke hasn't yet been punished for its lack of ball-handlers, and has beaten some quality teams in the process such as Virginia and TCU. Cayden Boozer has stepped up as the new starting point guard, and players like Dame Sarr and Isaiah Evans have seen bigger on-ball roles to make up for the absence of Foster. However, it's going to get a lot tougher against a St. John's team that is built to exploit a relative weakness in the backcourt.
St. John's pressures the ball 94 feet for most of the game and makes simple things such as inbounding the ball very difficult. The Johnnies struggle to score the ball at times, but they make up for that with a gritty, physical defensive mentality that helps them force plenty off turnovers with their ball pressure.
In the first round, a solid Northern Iowa team that came through the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament was completely overmatched against the St. John's pressure. The Panthers struggled to even get the ball across half court at the beginning of the game, allowing the Red Storm to jump out to a massive early lead that it never relinquished. For the game, Northern Iowa shot just 39% from the field and scored only 53 points.
St. John's then played Kansas in the second round, and a Jayhawks team that has struggled with backcourt consistency for much of the season ran into numerous problems with the pressure from Rick Pitino and company. The Jayhawks turned the ball over 16 times and the ball pressure in the backcourt derailed a number of other possessions, which ended up being a huge factor in a game that was decided on the final possession.
Duke had enough talent to pull away from TCU on Saturday in the second round thanks to its sheer size and defensive acumen, but the Blue Devils struggled with turnover problems against a Horned Frogs defense that is a little bit chaotic, similar to that of the Red Storm. Duke turned the ball over 17 times in that game, a number that cannot repeat itself if Jon Scheyer's squad wants to get back to the Elite Eight.
On top of the overall scheme and philosophy of the St. John's defense causing problems, Pitino has built a roster of players that make it very hard to survive their pressure from a personnel perspective. Dillon Mitchell is long and athletic and is one of the best defenders in the country, and Ian Jackson, Bryce Hopkins and Oziyah Sellers are also quality options on the defensive side of the ball.
In all likelihood, Duke is going to be able to slow St. John's down on the offensive end. The Blue Devils have size and multiple bodies to throw at Zuby Ejiofor, and the Johnnies have been inconsistent from the 3-point line all season long. If Pitino's squad wants to pull the upset, it will have to be with its defense. Its trademark ball pressure is a great place to start, and that could be the reason St. John's pulls off the upset.
