Coming off a four-point loss to Duke in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia is back in the NCAA Tournament in year one under Ryan Odom. The Cavaliers rebounded from a one-year hiatus to find themselves as a three-seed with an opening-round matchup against 14-seed Wright State and in the same pool as six-seeded Tennessee and 11-seeded Miami, Ohio.
The transition to Odom could not have gone much better for Virginia, which enters the NCAA Tournament with a 29-5 record, including 15-3 in the ACC. Odom has his team in cruise control over its last 15 games, during which it has beaten every team except Duke, against whom it is 0-2 on the year.
But as promising as the new-look Cavaliers have been, the NCAA Tournament has not always been kind to them. Virginia has fallen victim to the March Madness chaos as much as any power conference team in the country and has suffered six first or second-round exits in the last 14 years.
Nobody is more familiar with Virginia's NCAA Tournament woes than Odom, who was the mastermind behind the biggest upset in March Madness history when he led UMBC to the first-ever 16-seed vs. one-seed upset.
Now the catalyst of the program he once tore down, Odom has Virginia looking as good as it ever did under Tony Bennett. The Cavaliers are still in danger of letting old habits rear their ugly heads in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Wright State wants to fight fire with fire
Virginia has been a much-improved offensive team under Odom, but has maintained its gritty half-court defensive identity.
The Cavaliers pride themselves on preventing easy baskets in the paint, where they rank 48th in the country, allowing just 27.7 points per game. Senior center Ugonna Onyenso anchors the defense with 3.0 blocks per game, the most of any player in the NCAA Tournament.
Teams tend to fear Onyenso and Virginia's stout interior defense at times, but Wright State will look to go right at it. The Raiders are 10th in the country with 39.4 points in the paint and attack the rim on nearly every possession.
While Wright State does not have the size to match up with Virginia, it can beat the Cavaliers with speed. Most of their paint production originates from the outside, either on pick-and-roll sets or individual drives to the rim. Onyenso gets the majority of his blocks as a help defender, which will be a key factor in the matchup, but the Raiders like to have all five players at the three-point line to draw out paint protectors.
Wright State is also adept at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line, which could cause trouble for Virginia. The Cavaliers' three primary big men — Thijs de Ridder, Johann Grunloh and Onyenso — average a combined 6.0 fouls per game. Any one of them getting in early foul trouble would be huge for the Raiders' upset bid.
Virginia needs to pray for a Miami upset
The path is there for Wright State to pull off a March Madness miracle, but Virginia should still advance. However, the ACC runner-up could be on a much more urgent upset alert in the Round of 32.
The Cavaliers are the best three-seed in the bracket, but they find themselves in the same four-team pod as one of the most dangerous six-seeds. Had it not been for a late-year injury to star forward Nate Ament, Tennessee could have entered the tournament as a four or five-seed, making it a serious potential threat to Virginia in the second round.
The Volunteers need to survive Miami, Ohio, before even thinking about Virginia, which is no easy task. The Redhawks were the best team in college basketball during the regular season and proved themselves with a dominant win over SMU in the First Four.
Miami has the talent and momentum to pull off another upset, which would be the best-case scenario for Virginia. The Cavaliers' elite perimeter defense can handle the Redhawks' three-point barrage, but Tennessee's play style could exploit its biggest weakness.
As good as Virginia is at defending the paint, it has struggled against versatile big men who can pressure its big men on both ends of the floor. Specifically, the Cavaliers have struggled against the best power forwards in the country, which describes Ament to a tee.
Virginia is far from the first team to struggle to contain Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson, who both dominated the Cavaliers in three total games. But even mid-level players like Butler's Michael Ajayi, Ohio State's Amare Bynum, North Carolina's Jarin Stevenson and Virginia Tech's Amani Hansberry gave them fits. Assuming he makes it to their matchup unharmed, Ament could be a massive issue for Odum's frontcourt.
Virginia is far from a perfect team, but it is 29-5 for a reason in one of the most difficult conferences in the sport. Beating the Cavaliers before the Sweet Sixteen will take a near-perfect effort, which is what March Madness is all about.
