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USC football hosts Nevada in Week 1, although it's really Week 2 for the Trojans. In Year 2 of the Lincoln Riley era, reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams is aiming to lead Southern Cal to its first College Football Playoff appearance, and potentially even more. The Trojans took care of business in Week 0 against San Jose State and jumped out to a 1-0 start. However, the USC defense still has question marks after giving up 28 points to the Spartans, a Group of Five opponent.
What should USC football fans expect to see out of this team on Saturday? And more importantly, what do the Trojans need to demonstrate against an inferior opponent to prove they can live up to the offseason hype?
Here are three USC football predictions for the Trojans' Week 1 matchup vs. Nevada:
3. Expect even more personnel rotation
43 Trojans played 10 or more snaps in Week 0 vs. San Jose State. More than 70 players saw the field. 21 players had at least one tackle, and 12 caught passes. Eight Trojans had rushing attempts, and Riley used three different quarterbacks.
The point is USC is still figuring out what it has from a personnel standpoint. Riley knew USC would beat San Jose State and started experimenting with rotations when the game was comfortably in hand.
For example, freshman tight end/receiver Duce Robinson didn't see much action until later in the game. Once he got in the game, Robinson balled out, catching three passes for 44 yards and flashing some speed that a player his size shouldn't really have. But if he didn't play well, and Riley decided Robinson wasn't ready, maybe he redshirts this season.
Having as much depth as USC has, particularly on offense, is a blessing and a curse. It's great to have so much talent of course, but it's also hard to utilize everyone. The good thing about having these easier matchups at the front of the schedule is that the Trojans can get everyone into games and see who will work best down the line. Alabama will do the same thing at quarterback this Saturday against Middle Tennessee.
Anyways, expect to see lots of different combinations in certain units. The offensive line in particular is something USC needs to figure out before it's tougher games, but they should still experiment with this group in Week 1. USC approached the San Jose State game like a glorified scrimmage, and they will likely do the same against Nevada.
2. More big plays in the passing game
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Clearly, USC's offense was fine in Week 0, as they dropped 56 points on San Jose. However, the pace of the offense felt a little bit different than it did in 2022. There were less big plays and less vertical passing concepts unleashed in general. Riley was clearly working on new ways to quickly get the ball into the hands of playmakers like Zachariah Branch and Dorian Singer and let them go to work in space.
However, it just felt slower than a Lincoln Riley offense typically feels.
That might partly be a result of Riley not fully trusting the offensive line yet. Rather than let Williams sit back in the pocket and throw downfield, the game plan was geared towards getting the ball out more quickly. When Williams did drop back, pressure reached him pretty fast, particularly in the first half. USC punted on two of their first five drives, which is uncharacteristic.
As the offense starts to feel a bit more comfortable, look for Riley to open up the vertical passing game on Saturday. Williams averaged 13.6 yards per completion in 2022, so against Nevada's defense, which surrendered more than 30 points per game last year and only played one Power 5 opponent, expect the Trojans to average upwards of 15 yards per completion and break more “big” plays of 25+ yards.
1. USC's run defense gets on track (for now)
Nevada really struggled to run the football in 2022. On over 35 attempts per game, the offense averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. For a USC defense that really struggled to stop the run last year, this might be the sort of opponent the Trojans need to face to gain some confidence in the front seven.
In Week 0, San Jose State still averaged over seven yards per carry against USC. That number was slightly inflated by a 57-yard run in garbage time and a couple of long QB scrambles by Chevan Cordeiro. Still, that's too much to be giving up on the ground to weaker opponents.
Look for USC's best defensive rotations to smother Nevada in the run game and get below five yards allowed per carry. This USC defense could really use a strong performance on that front to set the tone for the rest of the year.
