One of the biggest games on the Week 3 slate is the SEC clash between Georgia and Tennessee. This will be the 55th all-time meeting between the two schools, as Georgia leads the series 29-23-2. Georgia is one of the top teams in the SEC, but it will face its first difficult test of the season and on the road. The game is sure to be entertaining, and here are three bold predictions about the clash.
Since 1992, these two teams have faced each other every year. Tennessee dominated early. The Vols won eight straight meetings from 1992 through 1999. The Bulldogs then won four straight from 2000 through 2003. In the next 13 meetings, Georgia won seven of the 13 games. Since 2017, Georgia has dominated the series. The Dawgs have won eight straight games over the Vols.
Making matters worse, most of these games have not been close. Georgia has scored 31 or more points in seven of the eight games, while Tennessee has eclipsed 20 points just once. Furthermore, the game has not been within ten points in any of the last eight meetings. The closest game was a 14-point loss in 2022, when Georgia won 27-13.
Both teams come into the game sitting at 2-0, but neither has faced steep competition. Georgia has defeated Marshall and Austin Peay, both at home. Tennessee has defeated Syracuse at a neutral site and East Tennessee State at home.
The Tennessee run defense is for real
The Volunteers' rush defense has been stellar this year. It is not shocking that the run defense did well against ETSU. The defense held ETSU to just 49 yards, but did give up a 20-yard run that led to a touchdown in the fourth quarter with the back-ups in.
They were nearly as good in Week 1 against Syracuse. In that game, the Orange racked up 103 yards on the ground with three scores. This does include adjustment for sack yardage. Removing sack yardage, it is 142 yards on 39 carries. That is good for just 3.64 yards per carry. The leader was Yasin Willis. While he did score three times on the ground and run for 91 yards, it was done on 23 carries.
The Georgia run game has not been great. They have been solid, but not amazing, considering the competition. They have run for 429 yards and seven touchdowns this year. Still, that is on 84 carries, giving them 5.1 yards per carry. With the fact that they face Marshall, who is replacing most of their starters from last year after multiple transfers, and an FCS opponent in Austin Peay, it is not a promising start.
The Georgia offensive line has been banged up as well, which will not help things in this game. Tennessee is going to flex its muscles in the run game and force Gunner Stockton to beat them. That could lead to solid results for the Vols.
Both quarterbacks struggle
Both teams are breaking in new starting quarterbacks this season. For the Bulldogs, Gunner Stockton takes over. He has been solid this year, completing 69 percent of his passes for 417 yards and two touchdowns. This is also against bad competition. Stockton has shown his legs, though, running for 86 yards and two scores. He has struggled against solid defensive units. Last year against Texas in the SEC title game, he passed for just 71 yards with a pick. Then, in the playoffs, he did pass for 234 yards, but it was on 32 attempts, and he was sacked four times. Further, he has to deal with the noise of Neyland Stadium, which Kirby Smart called the loudest.
Joey Aguilar is the starting quarterback for the Volunteers, replacing Nico Iamaleava, who transferred to UCLA. It has been an interesting path to get here. He spent two years at the City College of San Francisco. After redshirting his first year, his second was cancelled due to COVID. After considering hanging up the cleats, he transferred to Diablo Valley, another community college. He threw for over 3,000 yards in his two seasons before transferring to Appalachian State. There, he threw for over 3,000 yards in each of his two seasons and was stellar.
This led Aguilar to attempt to step up in competition once again, transferring back to California and joining UCLA. Once Iamaleava transferred to UCLA, he left for Tennessee. In two games, he has passed for 535 yards with five touchdowns, has yet to be sacked, and has not been intercepted. While Aguilar continues to step up in competition, this is the toughest test of his career. Last season, he did play against Clemson, going 18 for 41 for 214 yards and a touchdown. Aguilar will struggle early, getting used to the speed of the Georgia defense. Regardless, he is going to show he is the better quarterback in this one. That may be good news for the Vols.
The Vols break the streak
Tennessee has lost eight straight times to Georgia. It is the second-longest winning streak by a team in the series, behind Tennessee winning nine straight from 1989 through 1999. Tennessee will not let Georgia tie that streak in this one. Georgia is going to struggle to run the ball in this one, putting the pressure on Stockton to lead them. Stockton is going to struggle against this solid defense and will turn over the ball at least once.
Meanwhile, Tennessee will see Aguilar struggle to start, but he has consistently shown in his career that he will rise to the occasion. Tennessee also has a physical run game that will open up the pass for Aguilar. Star Thomas is a patient runner who can make big plays, but mainly uses a physical running style. He averaged 7.7 yards per carry against Syracuse and has 161 yards on 24 carries with three touchdowns this year. Meanwhile, DeSean Bishop is an opposite style of running, using his speed and finesse. He has run the ball just 14 times this year, but for 150 yards and a score. The running game will be key for Tennessee this week.
Georgia opened as a 7.5-point favorite in this game. At the time of writing, odds provided by FanDuel have Georgia as just a 3.5-point favorite. Betting momentum is heading toward Tennessee, and on the field momentum is as well. Tennessee is going to pull the upset at home and send Georgia to 0-1 in SEC play.
