The No. 13 Oklahoma Sooners will host the No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels in a Week 9 SEC clash that carries serious playoff weight for both programs. The Sooners are looking to bounce back from their Red River loss to Texas, while the Rebels need to prove their Georgia stumble was just a blip. John Mateer's performance will determine whether Oklahoma's elite defense gets the offensive support it needs to stay in the CFP hunt.
Here's how Mateer's night will unfold in Norman.
Mateer will finish 21-of-34 passing for 245 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He'll add 55 rushing yards and another score on 18 carries while taking two sacks. His final stat line reads 300 total yards and two touchdowns as the Sooners pull out a tight victory with defense leading the way.
John Mateer's game plan breakdown
The 245 passing yards will look modest on paper, but they'll fit the moment. Ole Miss struggles to create turnovers, with just four takeaways through seven games, ranking second-to-last in defensive efficiency. With the Rebels unable to force mistakes, Mateer will be able to operate within structure without excessive risk. He'll be a full month removed from hand surgery, giving him far more confidence than the rushed 17-day return against Texas, where Mateer threw three picks.
Protecting the football will matter more than airing it out here. The Rebels allow 22.6 points per game but haven't created turnovers consistently. That means Mateer will be able to work the short and intermediate game, letting his playmakers create after the catch without forcing throws into tight windows.
His rushing numbers will take a backseat to what worked at Washington State, but 18 carries will still give offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle options. Mateer's legs will remain valuable in the red zone and on third-and-short. Ole Miss has allowed 172 rushing yards to Kentucky, 221 to Arkansas, and 221 to Georgia, showing consistent issues defending the run. The designed runs will be there when Oklahoma needs to move the chains or punch in scores near the goal line.
Expect two sacks as Ole Miss tries to speed up Mateer's clock. The Rebels don't generate consistent pressure, but they'll blitz more than usual to test whether his hand limits how quickly he can deliver the ball. Oklahoma has allowed 10 sacks through six games, including five against Texas, showing the protection can be inconsistent. Mateer's ability to escape the pocket will be crucial to keeping the damage manageable.
Why Oklahoma pulls off the win
A 61.8% completion rate and 7.2 yards per attempt won't make SportsCenter, but those numbers will get the job done when you have one of the nation's best defenses behind you. Oklahoma allows just 9.4 points per game, second in the country, while leading everyone in total defense, sacks, and tackles for loss. Mateer won't need to do too much when Brent Venables' unit is suffocating offenses weekly.
That defensive dominance will shape how this game plays out.
This game will unfold as a chess match between Lane Kiffin's tempo offense and Oklahoma's defensive preparation. The Sooners will control pace and field position rather than trying to outscore a team averaging 37.4 points per game. Mateer's job will be simple: take what the defense gives him, move the chains, and avoid the killer mistake that flips momentum to a dangerous Ole Miss offense.
Norman will provide the comfort level Mateer needs for his biggest test since the injury. He knows Arbuckle's system inside and out after their time together at Washington State, and the home crowd will make communication difficult for the Rebels. There will be no need to force throws when everything around him is set up for a controlled, winning performance.
This prediction represents Mateer proving he can win the games that matter most without needing gaudy statistics. Managing the game, protecting the football, and delivering in key moments will validate the Sooners' playoff credentials heading into the season's final stretch.
