Oregon is in the midst of a solid season and is currently on track to make it to the College Football Playoff for a second straight year. In order to make these hopes a reality, Oregon must first defeat a former Pac-12 rival in USC.
Oregon is currently 9-1 on the year, but not in a position to make the Big Ten Title game. The Ducks started the season 5-0, including a 30-24 double overtime victory over Penn State. They would then lose the next game, falling to Indiana 30-20. Since then, Oregon has won four straight games. Only one game has been close, which was an 18-16 victory over Iowa on the road.
This is a potential playoff elimination game, and it will eliminate a team from the Big Ten Championship. This massive clash is also the site of ESPN's College Game Day as two top-25 teams meet.
The run game carries the day for Oregon
The Oregon offense has been solid this year. They are 11th in the nation in points per game while sitting eighth in yards per game. They have been solid in the passing game as well, sitting 55th in passing yards per game. Still, the run game has been amazing, sitting first in yards per rush and eighth in yards per game this year.
A major factor in the run game has been Noah Whittington. He has run for 623 yards and five scores this year. He has also run for 90 or more yards in three of the last four games. Jordan Davison has been a major producer in the run game as well. Davison has run for 461 yards this season, while adding 12 touchdowns. He has run for five touchdowns in the last four games, while running for over 300 yards in the last four games. Finally, Dierre Hill Jr. has run for 424 yards and four scores this season.
The Oregon run game has been fantastic, and is going against a USC run defense that has had some troubles. USC is 31st in opponent points per game while sitting 36th in yards per game. The defense has been better against the pass, sitting 32nd against the pass, but 52nd against the run. USC gave up over 200 yards to Jeremiah Love, and then 90 yards last week to Kamari Moulton of Iowa. They will struggle with this running attack as well, as Oregon racks up over 200 yards on the ground.
Matayo Uiagalelei thrives
The Oregon defense has been stellar this year. They are fourth in the nation in opponent points per game while sitting second in opponent yards per game. They are 25th against the run while sitting first in the nation against the pass. The Ducks have had some players make big plays this year. Teitum Tuioti has 5.5 sacks this year while forcing two fumbles. Meanwhile, Jerry Mixon has four pass breakups, two interceptions, and a fumble recovery.
Still, the biggest player in this game is going to be Matayo Uiagalelei. He has 18 tackles with 6.5 tackles for a loss and four sacks this year. The linebacker has also hit the quarterback four other times while also breaking up four passes. He has been a consistent presence in the backfield this year, in both the run game and the pass.
Jayden Maiava has been great at getting away from pressure this year, being sacked just 11 times this year. He will be sacked again in this game as well. Meanwhile, Uiagalelei is going to be a presence against Maiava and also against the run, coming away with at least two tackles for a loss.
Oregon gets a statement win
Oregon is in need of a statement win. Currently, the Ducks' biggest win is over Iowa, which was just dropped out of the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Meanwhile, teams behind Oregon have major wins. Oklahoma has the win over Alabama, while Notre Dame has a win over Miami and Pitt. Finally, Alabama has wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee this season. Oregon does not have its major statement win, but it can get a win over USC, which is ranked 15th in the CFP Rankings currently.
This will be the first time that Oregon and USC have met as Big Ten foes, but USC has controlled the series overall. They have won 38 times, plus had one win vacated. Oregon has won just 23 times. Regardless, the Ducks have won five of the last six games over the Trojans and have not lost at home since 2011.
Odds at the time of writing, provided by FanDuel, have Oregon as a 9.5-point favorite, while the over/under is set at 59.5 points. The under has hit in five of the last eight games for the Ducks, while hitting in four of the last five for the Trojans. With two strong defenses taking the field, the under is once again going to be the best play in this game. With the under, the game will be defensive-focused a tight. Still, Oregon has the better skill positions and is stronger on both the offensive and defensive lines. That will be the difference in this game as Oregon comes away with a tight victory.
