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Just when you thought things couldn’t get any crazier, Week 13 of college football delivered. With only two weeks left in the regular season, several teams seemed to have secured one of the 12 spots in the College Football Playoff rankings. But Alabama and Ole Miss quickly discovered otherwise.
Both the Crimson Tide and the Rebels suffered road upsets in SEC competition. Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama squad was stunned by Oklahoma in a 24-3 drubbing, while Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss team squandered multiple opportunities against a resurgent Florida team, ultimately falling 24-17.
Contrary to popular belief, it wasn’t just the SEC feeling the sting of upsets. Colorado and BYU, both in control of their Big 12 title hopes, stumbled on the road. The Big 12’s representation in the College Football Playoff now looks uncertain, though Arizona State emerged as the likely favorite after defeating BYU.
Indiana, meanwhile, suffered its first loss of the season against Ohio State. The Hoosiers finally faced a true heavyweight and couldn’t get the job done. But does this one loss mean they’re out of playoff contention entirely?
Over in the ACC, Miami needs one more win to clinch its second-ever conference title game appearance. SMU has already secured the other spot with a commanding win over Virginia. However, if the Hurricanes falter, Clemson could swoop in. Remarkably, even without a title game berth, Clemson might still find itself in the playoff conversation.
With all this chaos, the College Football Playoff committee has a daunting task ahead in determining this week’s Top 25. But while we don’t envy them, we’re ready to take our own shot at predicting the rankings. Let’s dive in.
1. Oregon Ducks (11-0)
Oregon will remain the outright No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings for the fourth consecutive week. The Ducks had a much-needed bye in Week 13 after grinding through eight straight games.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1)
Ryan Day and Ohio State answered the challenge against Indiana, silencing critics with a convincing win over the No. 5-ranked Hoosiers. There's no reason for the Buckeyes to drop from the No. 2 spot this week.
3. Texas Longhorns (10-1)
Texas continues to have just one blemish on its record after taking care of business against Kentucky, 31-14. However, the big question now is the health of quarterback Quinn Ewers. As we've seen before, the committee factors in injuries—especially to quarterbacks. Just ask Florida State. Texas' regular season finale against Texas A&M next week is a must-see.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-1)
Will the CFP committee penalize Penn State for barely escaping Minnesota? This wasn’t the first time the Nittany Lions have squeaked out a win this season, but a one-point victory over a now 6-5 Golden Gophers team could potentially warrant a drop in the rankings. However, with all the other chaos in Week 13, that seems unlikely.
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1)
Notre Dame went into Yankee Stadium and ended Army’s perfect season with a dominant 49-14 victory. While the Irish still carry one of the worst losses among the top 12 teams, their résumé now includes wins over four then-ranked opponents. Even if they lose to USC next weekend, Notre Dame looks primed to secure a spot in the inaugural 12-team playoff.
6. Miami Hurricanes (10-1)
One of the most criticized teams in the top 12 this year has been the Miami Hurricanes. Despite a fourth-quarter surge to defeat Wake Forest this past weekend, Miami still doesn’t have a single win over a ranked opponent. However, with Indiana and Alabama both suffering losses—teams ranked above the Hurricanes in last week’s rankings—Miami will likely get a boost from the committee on Tuesday, as they still carry just one loss.
7. Indiana Hoosiers (10-1)
Thanks to some significant losses across college football on Saturday, the Hoosiers may have caught a break and will likely maintain a top seeded CFP ranking that keeps them in the playoff. Indiana’s 23-point loss to the Buckeyes marked their first defeat of the season, but with only one loss, their playoff hopes remain intact.
8. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2)
Even though it was an ugly win over UMass, who managed to put up 21 points on the Bulldogs at home, Georgia is undoubtedly moving up in the CFP rankings this week with three teams ranked above them taking losses. The defeats of Ole Miss and Alabama, in particular, have positioned Georgia right back into the SEC Championship Game. Even with a potential loss to Georgia Tech in Week 14, a Bulldogs win in the conference title game would still guarantee an automatic berth into the inaugural 12-team playoff.
9. Tennessee Volunteers (9-2)
Just in time for Thanksgiving, no one may be more thankful right now than Tennessee. The Vols needed plenty of help after their road loss to Georgia two weeks ago. In last week’s CFP rankings, they sat at No. 11 as the first team out of the bracket. That’s likely to change in this week’s rankings.
10. SMU Mustangs (10-1)
There's a chance SMU could be ranked above both Georgia and Tennessee, but that seems unlikely. Nonetheless, the Mustangs should finally break into the Top 12 this week, landing at least at No. 10. They’ve already secured their spot in Charlotte to compete for the ACC title in their first year in the conference. Surely, that has to earn some respect, right?
11. Boise State Broncos (10-1)
It wasn’t easy, but Boise State managed to pull off a win over Wyoming, even with a banged-up Ashton Jeanty. The Heisman Trophy hopeful surpassed 2,000 rushing yards on the season. The Broncos win should keep them as the highest-ranked Group of Five team. This would secure them an automatic playoff bid and, notably, rank them higher than any Big 12 team, granting Boise State a first-round bye.
12. Clemson Tigers (9-2)
Last week, CFP teams ranked 14-16—BYU, Texas A&M, and Colorado—all suffered losses, creating movement in the CFP rankings. Sitting just behind them was Clemson, who didn’t face notable competition but still picked up a win over the Citadel. Now, the Tigers are hoping for a Miami loss to sneak back into the ACC title game. However, even without that, a win over South Carolina this weekend might be enough to slide Clemson into the playoff bracket. If they’re ranked No. 12 on Tuesday, they’d still be the first team out, as the highest-ranked Big 12 team is to get the nod as the presumed conference champion.
Alabama, Ole Miss likely to miss College Football Playoff
There’s really no justification for Alabama or Ole Miss to remain in the Top 12 after their losses. However, they likely won’t fall too far behind. One thing’s for sure—if a three-loss SEC team somehow sneaks into the playoff, especially without being a conference champion, the CFP committee is going to face a storm of criticism. That scenario, however, should only be possible if it’s a three-loss SEC champion, which remains in play.
However, in saying that, one three-loss SEC team to watch out for should be the Gamecocks. If they can pull off a win over in-state rival Clemson in the final week, the committee might show them a lot of favor.
The Big 12 had a rough Saturday, leaving the conference in chaos as several teams now jockey for a spot in the title game. Arizona State, meanwhile, likely doesn’t mind the upheaval as their chances improve in the muddled standings.
Here’s how spots 13-25 in the CFP rankings might look come Tuesday night.
