The No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns meet in their historic Red River Rivalry on Saturday at the Cotton Bowl, with both programs navigating their second season in the SEC.
Texas enters at 3-2 after a disappointing loss to Florida, while Oklahoma sits undefeated at 5-0. For the Longhorns, one question looms above all others: can Arch Manning finally deliver when it matters most?
Arch Manning: The ultimate X-factor
Manning is Texas's biggest X-factor, and his performance will decide the outcome. His numbers look decent on paper with 60% completion, 1,151 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions, but those came mostly against weaker teams. Against Florida, the truth came out. He completed just 55.2% of his passes, threw two costly picks, and took six sacks in the loss.
Manning's scrambling ability might be his only advantage. He's rushed for 160 yards and five touchdowns this season, showing he can make plays when things break down. Against a Sooners defense allowing just 7.2 points per game, that mobility will be tested by coordinator Brent Venables, who has made a career rattling young quarterbacks.
The offensive line situation makes Manning's job even harder. Texas ranks 128th nationally in pressure rate allowed and earned a shocking 0.0 pass blocking grade, according to CBS Sports. The Longhorns lost four starters from last year's group, and the replacements have struggled all season. Against Florida, both tackles were beaten off the edge repeatedly, contributing to Manning's six sacks.
If the line can't hold up against Oklahoma's pass rush, Manning will be running for his life all game. The unit's struggles force him into rushed throws and bad decisions, which explains some of his interception problems. Even a modest improvement in protection would help, but against a defense this good, Texas needs its offensive line to have its best game of the season.
Manning will lean heavily on DeAndre Moore Jr., his most trusted receiver. When Moore returned from an earlier injury against Sam Houston State, the chemistry was obvious as he caught all five targets for 79 yards. Manning needs that connection against Oklahoma's secondary, as Moore provides the security blanket and leadership the offense desperately needs.
If Manning can't deliver against this level of competition, Texas won't stand a chance.
Running back injuries compound problems
Texas' running back situation makes its offensive issues even worse. Quintrevion Wisner reinjured his hamstring against Florida and remains questionable, while CJ Baxter has been sidelined since Week 3 with his own hamstring injury. Without their top two backs against Florida, Texas managed just 52 rushing yards, exposing how much they rely on the running game to function.
If both remain unavailable against Oklahoma, Texas becomes completely one-dimensional. That allows the Sooners' defense to focus entirely on Manning and the passing game, making an already difficult task nearly impossible. Even having one of them back would help take pressure off Manning and give the offense some balance.
Mateer's status impacts everything
Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer's availability remains the Sooners' biggest question mark. The Heisman Trophy candidate underwent hand surgery after the Auburn game and is listed as questionable. Before the injury, Mateer completed 67.4% of his passes for 1,215 yards and six touchdowns while rushing for 190 yards and five scores.
If backup Michael Hawkins Jr. starts instead, Texas' defense could exploit his inexperience. Hawkins threw for 162 yards and four total touchdowns against Kent State, but he completed just 58% of his passes and was only 3-of-9 in the second half. Against a Texas defense in a hostile Red River Rivalry environment, those accuracy issues could become major problems. Mateer's absence would significantly boost Texas' chances of pulling the upset.
For Texas, everything revolves around Manning's ability to deliver under immense pressure. If the offensive line protects him, running backs contribute meaningfully, and Moore provides reliability, Manning has the tools to orchestrate an upset. Combined with their strong defense and potential Mateer absence, Texas could salvage its season with a statement victory in college football's most intense rivalry.
