Texas football is rolling with three consecutive wins, sparking renewed chatter for the College Football Playoffs. But a big one looms this Saturday against Vanderbilt — with the CFP a big topic here.
The Longhorns face a fierce gauntlet featuring three nationally ranked Southeastern Conference teams left. It starts with the No. 9 ranked team in the nation, featuring a rising Heisman Trophy contender, setting foot in Austin. Arch Manning looks ready to go too following his concussion scare from the Mississippi State game.
This sets up a rather tricky home test for the ‘Horns. Vandy leads this series 8-4-1 all-time despite both teams playing only its second SEC matchup together Saturday.
There's lots of implications here for Steve Sarkisian, Manning and company that leads into our bold predictions.
Arch Manning and Diego Pavia will have epic duel
Two of the SEC's more polarizing, and talented, QBs share the field at Darnell K. Royal Stadium.
Manning entered the 2025 season hearing the Heisman buzz. However, as he's struggled, Pavia is emerging as a dark horse contender.
Pavia brings 20 combined touchdowns in tow into the state capitol of Texas. He's also facing a top 20 defense bound to test him. Manning, meanwhile, faces his own stout defense with the Commodores ranking 31st nationally.
Mississippi State exposed this Texas defense though. The Bulldogs tallied 445 total yards (382 passing) despite falling 45-38 in overtime. Vandy and Pavia will turn to a similar hurry-up spread approach to put Texas on its toes.
Manning must worry about the pass rush of Vandy. But he and “Sark” will likely turn to Alabama's blueprint — which witnessed Ty Simpson hit 340 passing yards. ‘Bama hit Vandy with bunch formations Vanderbilt struggled against and disrupted its man coverage.
Look for both QBs to have an epic duel and deliver highlight worthy moments that'll trend online.
Texas will crowd the box
Pavia is most deadly when he's got room to run.
Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has seen his share of dual-threat passers. But he's just 8-6 all-time against passers who can run and throw.
Kwiatkowski could pull out a Sept. 2023 plan he pulled out against Alabama. He faced a rising talent named Jalen Milroe that afternoon — bottling him to only 2.9 yards per carry and forcing two interceptions in the 34-24 Texas upset that season.
The DC will crowd the box and load the line of scrimmage with more defenders. He's going to force Pavia to beat his defense with his arm, which the Vandy QB struggled to do against Alabama earlier this season.
Turnovers will dictate the outcome
Texas forced 14 turnovers leading into Saturday. Vanderbilt has 11, but seven have come on fumble recoveries.
Missouri lost one against Vandy which ultimately shifted the momentum back to the Commodores. Manning needed to shake off an interception against the Bulldogs but also recovered a fumble.
Whoever turns the ball over late will dictate Saturday's outcome. Kwiatkowski has implemented a defense that can grab the football and will no doubt force Pavia into mistakes.
But Manning must take care of the ball too. Again, ball security in the fourth quarter will determine who wins here and increases its CFP chances.
