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When Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma to become the 30th head coach in the history of the USC football program, it was a move that was met with nearly unanimous approval. The widespread expectation was that Riley, who had come to be known as one of the brightest offensive minds in all of football, would come to Los Angeles and reinvigorate football on the west coast and turn the Trojans into perennial contenders once again, just as they were under John McKay and Pete Carroll.
But three years in, Lincoln Riley hasn't come close to living up to the lofty expectations that were place on him when he arrived. After an 11-3 campaign during his first year in Los Angeles, USC slipped to 8-5 during the 2023 season, and now in their first season in the Big Ten, the Trojans are a disappointing 3-4. Riley has already lost more games (12) in his two and a half seasons at USC than he did during his entire five year run at Oklahoma (10).
For that reason, it makes sense that the Trojans would possibly be feeling some buyers remorse, particularly since there's not really an easy or inexpensive way to get out of the deal.
“People are unhappy about USC, right? My sources told me this week that Lincoln Riley would be owed $90 million if you were going to fire him. Right around $90 million,” ESPN insider Pete Thamel said on a recent episode of the College GameDay podcast. “So it feels like those two are a little bit stuck with each other right now – Lincoln Riley and USC.”
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Two years ago, the idea that USC would be stuck to Lincoln Riley would've seemed preposterous. It would've been far more likely that the Trojans were doing everything they could to ensure that Riley wouldn't soon be taking his talents to the NFL. Now, a move to the NFL could be viewed as USC's escape hatch, though, per Thamel, it may be far-fetched.
“I don’t want to say the NFL market for Lincoln Riley as a head coach has disappeared, but it certainly isn’t what it was at the end of Oklahoma when he was the bell of the ball, talking to all these folks about his pass game,” Thamel said. “I would think it is dissipated significantly because what he has not proven at USC is that he can build a holistic football team. An NFL franchise is not going to hire a cold coach who lost four one-possession games.”
Respectfully, I disagree with Pete Thamel here. Four starting quarterbacks currently in the NFL — Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts and Caleb Williams — have played under the tutelage of Lincoln Riley, and an additional 24 other players that have been coached by Riley at either Oklahoma or USC have been selected in the NFL Draft. He's proven he has a knack for developing NFL talent.
Also working in Lincoln Riley's favor is that he has long been rumored to be a desired candidate for Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys, and with Dallas' offense in a tailspin — 20th in points per game after leading the NFL in scoring last year — you can't convince me that a very desperate Jerry wouldn't be intrigued by the Texas native coaching his team in 2025.
