The Matt Rhule era in Nebraska got off to an unceremonious start. They lost yet another one-possession game in their season opener against the Minnesota Golden Gophers, blowing a touchdown lead in the fourth quarter to lose 13-10. They got their doors blown off by Deion Sanders' Colorado Buffaloes in Boulder, dropping that game by a final score of 36-14. But Nebraska football has begun to stabilize itself. They handled business against a scrappy Northern Illinois team that beat Boston College on the road. They beat the Huskies by a final score of 35-11. The next week they cruised to a 28-14 win over Louisiana Tech at home.
Nebraska enters the biggest game of their season 2-2 and welcomes the second-ranked Michigan Wolverines to their home in Lincoln. Michigan is coming off two consecutive trips to the college football playoff and is looking to make it three straight trips there. That quest looks good so far, as the Wolverines have begun this season 4-0. However, this is their first road test of 2023. Weird things can happen in these types of contests. This game could prove to be no exception. With that being said, here are two Nebraska football predictions to keep an eye out for this contest.
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2) Blake Corum is held under 100 rushing yards
Many things can be said about this Nebraska side, but one thing they are solid at is defending the run. The sample size isn't very big, but through four games, the Cornhuskers have allowed only 46.3 rushing yards per game. Their schedule hasn't been super daunting either, but they have played two power five opponents. Minnesota, a team that wants to run the ball early and often, ran for only 55 yards on 25 carries against the Cornhuskers. Considering that Minnesota ran for 170 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries against North Carolina and 244 yards on 42 carries against Northwestern, Nebraska's Week 1 performance looks quite impressive.
They also held serve against Colorado. Granted, the Buffaloes aren't the most fierce team in the trenches (look at how they fared there on both sides of the ball against Oregon), but they held them 58 yards on 33 carries. Exclude Shedeur Sanders' carries that include sacks and they still held Colorado to 88 yards on 22 carries. That is a win for their run defense.
Michigan hangs its hat on running the ball. Their offensive line and rushing attack are much better than what Nebraska football has seen to this point, and Michigan's star running back Blake Corum is the best back they will have played so far. Corum ran for 100+ yards in all but three games he started excluding the Ohio State game where he got early. The games he didn't were games he got pulled because Michigan blew out their opponent. Corum should still have a nice game, but Nebraska holds him under the century mark.
1) Nebraska covers the 17-point spread
Depending on certain books, this line is hovering around the 17 or the 16.5-point mark in favor of Michigan. Michigan should absolutely be favored, but that line seems a bit too large for a couple of reasons. For one, Michigan has yet to cover a single spread this season. And it isn't like they've played a murderer's row of opponents; to date, their opponents have been East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green, and Rutgers. They are 0-3-1 against the spread. All of those games were at home too.
Not only is Nebraska football the home team in this one, but they've been frisky for a couple of years now. They play teams tough. Their problem is that they can't finish those games.
Nebraska is now 2-14 in one-score finishes since the start of 2021. Genuinely incredible.
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 1, 2023
This game wasn't close last year: Michigan rolled Nebraska 34-3. But with this being in Lincoln, this game could be closer than Vegas thinks. Michigan will still win, but Nebraska should cover this two-touchdown-plus spread.
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