The New York Mets enter the season looking to bounce back from what was a horrendous season. We're here to share our MLB odds series and make a Mets over under win total prediction for the 2024 season.

The Mets had one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory, going 75-87 after spending more on free agents than any team in baseball. Ultimately, the key to their bad season was a 9-17 midseason stretch that ruined any chances the Mets had of competing. But there were some highlights.

Pete Alonso finished with a batting average of .217 with 46 home runs, 118 RBIs, and 92 runs while producing an on-base percentage of .318. Meanwhile, Francisco Lindor had a batting average of .254 with 31 home runs, 98 RBIs, 108 runs, and 31 stolen bases. Brandon Nimmo produced a batting average of .274 with 24 home runs,  68 RBIs, and 89 runs. Likewise, Starling Marte had a batting average of .248 with five home runs, 28 RBIs, 38 runs, and 24 stolen bases. Jeff McNeil had a down year by his standards, delivering a batting average of .270 with 10 home runs, 55 RBIs, and 75 runs while also fielding an on-base percentage of .333

Kodai Senga emerged as the top starter after going 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA. Now, he looks to build on that momentum and keep pitching well in the 2024 campaign. He has an amazing forkball. Additionally, he also can throw a cutter than compares to Corbin Burnes.

The Mets grabbed Adrian Houser in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers to bolster their team. Significantly, he went 8-2 with a 4.12 ERA through 21 starts last season for Milwaukee. The Mets also signed Jorge Lopez from the Orioles. Now, he hopes to bounce back after going 6-2 with a 5.95 ERA last season. The Mets also signed Luis Severino. Unfortunately, he battled injuries and also struggled last season, going 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA through 18 starts.

Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Mets 2024 Win Total Odds

Over 81.5 Wins: -105

Under 81.5 Wins: -115

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Why Mets Will Win 81.5 Games

Not spending much at all after last offseason, Steve Cohen opted to go the conservative route. Thus, it is all about the management and the core players excelling. Carlos Mendoza is the new manager and looks to bring a new leadership style to the Mets.

Edwin Diaz is back after missing the entire 2023 season with a knee injury that he suffered in the World Baseball Classic. Now, he hopes to regain his elite form while also closing down games. Lefty Brooks Raley is one of the better setup men in the league. Ultimately, he throws a great sweeping slide and a changeup that does well against right-handed hitters. Senga is going to be an elite starter to help set up the game for this bullpen.

Marte is still effective at the top of the lineup. Also, Lindor is fast and powerful. You cannot forget about McNeil, who is still a solid contact hitter. Also, Alonso can still smash home runs when you need it. Nimmo will continue producing. Significantly, Francisco Alvarez may take the next step as the Mets believe he is elite.

The Mets will win 82 games if they can have a consistent lineup that can average at least four runs per game and give themselves a good chance to win nightly. Then, Senga is going to be elite and carry the Mets on his back.

Why Mets Won't Win 81.5 Games

But spending almost no money can also backfire. Additionally, relying on players who are almost always injured is never a recipe for success. The Mets are rolling the dice on many of their players.

The Mets still have a lot of bad hitters. Unfortunately, Brett Baty was terrible, with a batting average of .21o through 489 appearances. Tyrone Taylor is also awful, with a batting average of .201, and struggles against power pitchers. Alvarez can be elite. However, he cannot hit left-handed pitchers. He hit .171 against them last season.

But the real question for the Mets is health. Unfortunately, they have two starters who have had issues with that. Jose Quintana and Severino cannot stay off the injured list. Moreover, Houser is mediocre. Tyler Megill was even worse. Somehow, his hard-hit rate and walk rate went up while his strikeouts went down.

Final Mets Over/Under Win Total Prediction

The Mets finished over .500 two times over five years. It seems that the 2022 season was an aberration for the Mets. Unfortunately, they still remain in the NL East, which still holds the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and Miami Marlins. Consider that all three of those teams can make life hard for the Mets. Also, the Mets will still have tough games against the Los Angeles Dodgers. They also have a date with the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on their schedule. Additionally, they have a showdown with the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles on their schedule. They will still struggle. Consequently, this means they finish under 82 wins.

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Final Mets Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Mets Under 81.5 Wins: -115