It's here. It's finally here. Not every fanbase can look forward to the Super Bowl, but every fanbase can look forward to the NFL draft.
With 2021 being one of the hardest for teams to evaluate prospects (with a lack of games due to coronavirus, players opting out, no in-person NFL combine being a few of the obstacles), this might be one of the most unpredictable drafts we've seen in recent memory.
Nonetheless, there are a few bets that savvy gamblers can make to earn a profit while watching the NFL draft on Thursday night. As David Purdum of ESPN laid out earlier this week, sharps have capitalized on the draft in recent years thanks to bookmakers being unable to predict what is possibly the most unpredictable sporting event on the calendar.
Sportsbooks are offering dozens of draft props to giving fans a rooting interest outside of their favorite teams.
Before we get into some worthy bets, one quick clarification when it comes to over/unders on draft props: the number they are referring to is the draft slot of the player taken.
For example, if DeVonta Smith's over/under is 10.5 and he is drafted with the 11th overall pick by the New York Giants, the over hits.
With that out of the way, let's get into three solid bets heading into the 2021 NFL Draft.
Kyle Pitts Under 5.5 (-175, per BetMGM)
While it's fairly certain that Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson will go at pick No. 1 and pick No. 2, respectively, what happens at picks 3-5 is still up in the air.
Florida's Kyle Pitts has been rightfully named the unicorn of this NFL draft. He's technically listed as a tight end, but he runs like a wide receiver and has been viewed as such by most teams.
With his rare combination of speed and quality hands, Pitts has been coveted by teams and has been linked to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 4, as Pro Football Network's Tony Pauline said in a media call to SBNation's The Falcoholic.
Pitts to Atlanta makes a lot of sense. New head coach Arthur Smith is viewed as an offensive genius around the league, and adding Pitts to an already stacked receiving core gives Atlanta's passing game sky-high potential.
Drafting Pitts would coincide with the rumors of Julio Jones being on the trade block, as Pitts can at worst be 80 percent of what Jones is on a rookie contract. Having Pitts, Calvin Ridlay, Russell Gage and Hunter Henry is a great group to the most out of an aging Matt Ryan.
Even if Pitts is passed up by the Falcons, we can't rule out a team trading up for Pitts, as tight ends with the potential of Pitts don't come around very often. As Travis Kelce's tenure with the Kansas City Chiefs has proven, having a tight end that can be a No. 1 option can allow teams the flexibility to take risks and using mid-round picks on receivers.
While -170 is not exactly great value, Pitts falling out of the top 5 seems impossible.
Najee Harris Under 25.5 (-140, per BetOnline.ag)
We may never see running backs be seen as a priority in the first round of the NFL draft again, as teams are continuing to use late round picks or dig through the undrafted prospects to find their ball carrier of the future.
If there is one running back that goes in the first round of this draft, I like it to be Najee Harris from Alabama. Harris was a three-down back in college whose outstanding vision, overall balance, and proficiency to gain yards after contact should help him find a spot in the NFL.
Much like the pick above, -140 is not great value, but it feels unlikely that Najee Harris falls past the Steelers at No. 24.
According to a report from Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio, the Steelers are linked to Harris or Tulsa's Zaven Collins with their pick towards the end of the draft.
As Sports Illustrated's Donnie Druin pointed out yesterday, Harris may not even be available for the Steelers at No. 24, as another team looking to improve their run game like the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins or Arizona Cardinals could scoop up Harris before the Steelers get a chance to.
Even though running backs seem to have less and less value in the first round of the NFL draft every year, I love Harris to be taken in the first 25 picks of this draft, making the under a lock.
Over 4.5 Cornerbacks taken in the first round (-115, per William Hill)
While this draft is being headlined by the NFL-ready quarterbacks and the talented wide receivers, one underrated group in this draft is cornerback, as there's a number of prospects that could go towards the second half of the first round.
R.J. White, the managing editor of SportsLine and CBS Fantasy, loves this bet, and would even bet it up to 5.5 corners taken thanks to the bevy of richs at the position in this draft, as he said to CBS Sports staff in a piece published earlier this morning.
“Once we get toward the end of the first round, you can see some contenders like the Bills, Saints and plenty of others prioritizing the corner position in an attempt to have enough depth at the position come playoff time,” White told SportsLine. “That could also push fringe first-rounders like Kelvin Joseph and Aaron Robinson up, so if I can get good plus money on over 5.5, I'd look at playing that as well.”
This NFL draft is stacked with talented, big corners, which is what defenses are valuing heavily these days.
Patrick Surtain II and Jaycee Horn seem like locks to go in the top 20, and while Caleb Farley has been dealing with back injuries, most draft experts see him going towards the back half of the first round.
That's three corners right there, so if a few other corners like Northwestern's Greg Newsome, Georgia's Tyson Campbell or Florida State's Asante Samuel Jr. get taken in the first round, bettors will be happy as quality teams fill out the depth charts with quality defenders.
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