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The Kansas City Chiefs have made it to the AFC championship game for the seventh straight year, and they will once again be taking on the Buffalo Bills in a heavily anticipated matchup. Patrick Mahomes and company have beaten Josh Allen and the Bills three straight times in the playoffs during their recent rivalry, setting the stage for a huge matchup with a trip to Super Bowl 59 on the line.
The 2024 campaign has been a bit different for the Chiefs, as they haven't exactly been as dominant as expected, despite cruising to a 15-2 record. Kansas City frequently grinded out ugly wins, and they were only a couple of plays away from having a marginally different record. Their ability to find ways to pick up victories is unmatched, though, and they have to be considered the favorite to win the Super Bowl until they are eliminated.
If there's a team that has a shot to send them packing, it's the Bills, as they were the only team to beat them this year when they were playing at full strength. Kansas City will have a lot of motivation to win this game and exact some revenge, and if they can expose this fatal flaw that Buffalo possesses, they will have a shot to win their third straight Super Bowl.
Bills fatal flaw that Chiefs can exploit: Lack of pass-catching talent
The Bills are one of the deepest teams in the NFL. They possess a lockdown defense and one of the most dangerous weapons in the game on offense in their star quarterback. Even though they lost their top two pass catchers, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, over the past offseason, their offense has looked better than ever with Allen leading the way.
While the lack of playmakers on offense hasn't come back to hurt Buffalo yet this season, Kansas City is in a good spot to be able to make them pay for it in this game, and realistically speaking, it may be their only path to victory. The Bills have an assortment of pass catchers, such as Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, and the tight end duo of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, but there's no consistent number one option for Allen to throw to.
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The Chiefs already have the game plan in place for how they can beat the Bills. In their regular season meeting, which Buffalo won by a score of 30-21, Kansas City largely made Allen win the game in the air. The Bills ran for just 104 yards on 31 carries, but they picked up three of their touchdowns on the ground, which proved to be the difference maker.
Even though it didn't work in their first meeting, it's reasonable to expect the Chiefs to employ a similar strategy in this game. They will stack the box to slow down James Cook and Allen on the ground in hopes of setting up third-and-long situations. They accomplished this the first time they met this season; the problem was that Allen carved them up for 262 yards and a touchdown.
Things are different this time around, though. Kansas City is largely healthy on defense, and that includes having one of their starting cornerbacks in Jaylen Watson healthy after he missed their first clash. Watson was eased into the action after playing his first game in nearly three months when the Chiefs beat the Houston Texans in the divisional round, but his role will surely increase against Buffalo.
Now that Watson's healthy, it makes things harder for Allen, because the Chiefs can run their preferred coverages against him. With Trent McDuffie on the other side, Kansas City has two corners who can stick with their assignment in man coverage, which is huge, as it allows the rest of the defense to play a bit more free. Safeties Justin Reid and Bryan Cook can be more aggressive, which is important to note given the amount of unique blitz packages defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will send Allen's way.
If Buffalo gets things going on the ground, Kansas City could be in trouble, because that will open up the passing attack for Allen and company. The Chiefs need to keep their linebackers in the box, because if they drop back into coverage, they are put in a no-win situation. Allen will find matchups he likes and attack those linebackers, and if he doesn't find anything he likes, he will take off and run the ball on his own.
The Bills have done a great job of masking their lack of pass-catching talent all season long, but the Chiefs have the personnel to make their life very difficult in the AFC championship game. If they can stymie Buffalo's ground game and show Allen some different looks this time around, Kansas City will have a good shot at advancing to the Super Bowl.
