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The Kansas City Chiefs are clear favorites in their upcoming Divisional Round matchup with the Houston Texans, but the Texans beat the Chiefs are Arrowhead Stadium back in Week 6, so anything can happen.
With the New England Patriots out of the picture, Kansas City is the No. 1 threat to the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC, but it will have to get through Deshaun Watson and Houston first.
While the Chiefs are the more talented team and should be able to come away with a win at home, this will not be easy, especially against a Texans club that is coming off of an emotional overtime Wild Card Round victory over the Buffalo Bills.
So, here are a couple of big X-factors for Kansas City on Sunday:
Damien Williams
Going into the 2019 campaign, Damien Williams was expected to be the Chiefs' No. 1 running back, but Kansas City's late August acquisition of LeSean McCoy clouded things.
Ultimately, McCoy served as the featured back during the first half of the season while Williams battled nagging injuries and simply did not cut it as a performer when he was on the field.
But during the second half of the year, Williams came on strong, putting together a couple of 100-plus yard performances and displaying the talent the Chiefs saw last season when Williams took over for Kareem Hunt.
Williams is also a guy who can catch the ball out of the backfield, so he is a dual threat as a running back.
The good news for Williams is that the Texans were not very good at stopping the run this year, as they allowed 121.1 rushing yards per game during the regular season, which ranked 25th in the NFL. They also surrendered a robust 4.8 yards per carry, which ranked 27th.
While Williams isn't exactly Dalvin Cook or Derrick Henry, the opportunity is there for him to have a significant game this weekend, as he is entering the playoffs on a positive note and Houston just allowed 172 rushing yards to the Buffalo Bills in their Wild Card Round win, so the Texans' run defense hasn't appeared to get any better.
If Williams can have a big game, it will be monumental for Kansas City, as it will allow Patrick Mahomes even more freedom to pick Houston's shaky secondary apart.
The pass rush
Believe it or not, the Chiefs' pass defense ranked eighth in the NFL this season, and their pass rush was a big reason why, as they totaled 45 sacks.
Kansas City's putrid run defense is another story, which is why the Chiefs absolutely have to limit Watson through the air on Sunday afternoon.
Of course, Watson can get outside the pocket and run, so it's not just a matter of applying pressure: it's also a matter of getting him to the ground or forcing him into bad decisions.
Watson can make plays on the fly, so just flushing him out of the pocket is not going to get it done.
The Chiefs need to apply consistent pressure and, if anything, try and collapse the pocket so he can't get out and make things happen with his legs.
If Kansas City can shut down—or at least severely limit—Houston's aerial attack, it will be sitting pretty.
