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Antonio Brown is now a member of the New England Patriots, which has certainly thrown a wrench into a lot of Fantasy Football teams across the country who were expecting the wide receiver to begin the season with the Oakland Raiders.
Obviously, Brown's value has already changed, as he was not eligible to play in Week 1 due to the fact that he was not a member of the Patriots long enough at that point.
But Brown will be available for Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins next Sunday.
So, just what will Brown's value be for the remainder of the season?
One thing we all need to understand is that even if Antonio Brown is Antonio Brown, he has not spent any time with the Patriots this offseason. He doesn't know the playbook, he doesn't know his role, he has no familiarity with Tom Brady, he knows nothing.
As insanely talented as Brown, that is a tough job for any player, as NFL systems are the most difficult to learn of any of the major pro sports.
Plus, New England already has an established receiving corps that includes Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman and Phillip Dorsett, so Brown's targets will almost certainly be down from his Pittsburgh Steelers days.
Some seem to think that Brown won't miss a beat and will still be the same guy we have seen in previous years, but I am not entirely convinced of that.
The Pats are under no pressure to get Brown the ball, and they aren't going to force-feed him just because he is who he is. They will play their game the way they play their game, with or without Brown.
Clearly, Brown will be their best receiver, but Edelman has been Brady's favorite target for years, and Gordon has developed a rapport with the future Hall-of-Fame quarterback.
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That means Brady will almost surely be spreading the ball around, and let's not forget that the Patriots also have a pretty solid ground game (even if Sony Michel was brutal in Week 1).
For all of those reasons, it seems a bit unrealistic to me to expect Brown to register 85-90 catches. I think somewhere between 60-70 is more likely, which obviously could still put Brown in the neighborhood of 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns.
It may very well be up to Brown to make the most of his touches, as I doubt he is going to be accruing 170 targets.
Remember this, too: Brady is at a point where coasting during the regular season may become a regular thing for him. He did it last year at 41 years old, so I don't see any reason why he won't do it this year at 42.
New England has virtually no competition in the AFC East, so it can essentially do whatever it pleases and still win the division.
Taking all of that into consideration, Brown is not the same 100 percent guaranteed dominant option he was in Pittsburgh. He won't be catching 100 passes. He probably won't be catching 80, either.
Edelman and Gordon are terrific wide outs in their own right, and the Pats will treat them accordingly.
So, while Brown is still a good option and will almost certainly put up really good numbers, he is no longer in the same category as fellow receivers like Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, and Davante Adams.
