This has not been the kind of season that head coach Kris Knoblauch or Connor McDavid anticipated for the Edmonton Oilers. After back-to-back appearances in the Stanley Cup Finals, the Oilers had established themselves as a Western Conference powerhouse with the ability to string peak performances together.
But the 2025-26 regular season has seen regression. The Oilers have rarely been in sync and the number of times they have looked like one of the best teams in the NHL have been few and far between. They have eight games remaining and their playoff position appears to be secure, but only because they play in the woefully weak Pacific Division.
The Oilers sit in second place in the division with 83 points, four points below the first-place Anaheim Ducks and one point ahead of the even-more disappointing Vegas Golden Knights.
The Oilers are supposed to be a powerhouse team like the Colorado Avalanche or Dallas Stars. Those teams have reached 104 and 100 points, respectively, and the Oilers are far below that standard.
As poorly as the Oilers have played this season, there is a silver lining. All will be forgiven if they can turn it on in the Stanley Cup playoffs, return to the Finals and find a way to win it. While it's a fairly simple idea, the execution of that proposal will be complex and may be out of reach.
Pacific Division gives Oilers an edge, but nightmarish matchups later in postseason likely
The Oilers are likely to play the Golden Knights in the first round of the playoffs. The VGK has had major problems of their own and are in worse shape than Edmonton as they sit in third place in the division. That team fired head coach Bruce Cassidy over the weekend and replaced him with veteran disciplinarian John Tortorella with just days to go before the start of the playoffs.
The matchup is a strange one because these are two of the glamour franchises in the NHL. However, neither one has played that way this season and the glamour has flown straight out of the window. This will be a battle for survival and the Oilers should win.
There is no reason to think that the Golden Knights will suddenly get it together for the start of the playoffs. The firing of Cassidy and the hiring of Tortorella is a desperation move. McDavid will take the lead in this series and he will be the best player on the ice, as is almost always the case.
McDavid has scored 42 goals and 82 assists for 124 points and he has taken the lead in the league's scoring race over Nikita Kucherov (121 points) and Nathan MacKinnon (120 points). He has a supporting cast that includes Leon Draisaitl (97 points, should return for the start of the playoffs), Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zack Hyman.
The Oilers should be able to get past the Golden Knights and win the following round. They will most likely face the upstart Ducks, one of the most improved teams in the league. Head coach Joel Quenneville has done an outstanding job with his young team that features Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson and Beckett Sennecke.
The Ducks should have an advantage over the No. 1 Wild Card team — most likely the Utah Mammoth — but the Oilers have too much talent for Anaheim in the second round.
Oilers' nightmare comes in third round
Once the Oilers move out of their own division, they will have a chance to play in the Western Conference Finals against the Central Division survivor. The Avs are on track to win the Presidents Trophy, while the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild have been dynamic at various points throughout the season.
The Stars and Wild will have to play each other in the first round, and the winner has to go up against the Avs. That should be a seven-game series, and that could be the Oilers only hope. If the winner of that series is battered and bruised, the Oilers may find a team that has some vulnerabilities.
However, if the Avs steamroll in the first round and beat the Stars-Wild survivor without losing any momentum, the Oilers are going to be up against a monster of an opponent.
MacKinnon, Cale Makar (check injury status) and Marty Necas are the most dangerous players for the Avs, and head coach Jared Bednar's team has excellent depth. Far more than the Oilers and it would play a huge role in the series.
Edmonton has not had it together during the regular season and there's little reason to think that they could turn things around against the best team in the league. McDavid will try to rally his team and bring out their best effort, but the nightmare matchup could come in the Western Conference Finals for the Oilers.
Their sad season will come to an end after the third round.
