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Jonathan Toews is returning to the NHL, joining the Winnipeg Jets. The Jets have signed Toews to a one-year contract. After being out for the past two seasons, Toews is making his comeback. The deal is incentive-laden, but carries just $2 million cap hit for the Jets.
The Jets wanted to add depth at forward this offseason. They have Gabriel Vilardi as a restricted free agent and are likely to lose Nikolaj Ehlers. They will have their top line of Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, returning next year, most likely to join Vilardi. The Jets also brought in Cole Koepke and Tanner Pearson in free agency, both setting up to be depth pieces. Currently, Toews projects to be the second-line center, playing with Cole Perfetti and Alex Iafallo.
Toews was the third overall pick of the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2006 NHL Draft. He would break into the NHL in the 2007-08 season, playing in 64 games, scoring 24 goals and adding 30 assists. He would go on to be a three-time Stanley Cup champion, while also winning the 2010 Conn Smythe, the 2013 Frank J. Selke Trophy, and the 2015 Mark Messier Leadership Award. In his 15 years with the Blackhawks, he would score 20 or more goals in the first 12 of them. He has also scored 50 or more points in 12 of his 15 seasons. Still, the veteran has missed the last two seasons due to suffering from symptoms of Long COVID and CIRS.
A low-risk, high-reward signing
The contract for Toews could pay off big for the Jets. Still, in his last two seasons of play, he was not the same level of player he once was. In the 2021-22 campaign, he played in 71 games, scoring just 12 goals while having 25 assists. His 12 goals were the lowest of his NHL career. Meanwhile, the next year, he would score 15 goals and add 16 assists. That would give him just 31 points, which was the lowest point total of his career.
Still, for $2 million this year, if Toews can put up 31 points, that would be great value. A general contract guideline for a deal is $100 thousand per point of production on the offensive end of the ice. That would place the value of this contract for the Winnipeg native closer $3 to $3.5 million instead of the $2 million he is being paid. If the center can play a full season and have even his low-end production, the Jets will have gotten a bargain. Further, he has shown to be reliable when in the lineup. He missed almost 30 games in his last season, but before that, he had played in 70 or more games in the prior eight seasons.
The Jets also still have $20 million in cap space this offseason. This will allow them to still make moves to continue to add depth. They could also add depth in case Toews cannot make it the full season. While there are bonuses tied to the contract, the Jets will gladly pay them out since they are tied to both his personal and the team's performance.
Final thoughts and grade on the Jonathan Toews contract
Not only has Toews missed the last two seasons, but he also missed the shortened 2020-21 campaign due to health issues. Still, he came back from missing a year and was still productive. He scored over 30 points, even while dealing with the effects of CIRS. The Canadian-born forward then sat out for two full seasons to make sure he was fully healthy. There is the possibility that the health struggles resurface, but there is also the possibility that he can play a full season.
From the Jets' perspective, they need to replace the production of Ehlers. This would require Toews to play in at least 60 games. If he does that and the Jets make it to the playoffs, he would earn another $3.25 million. Most likely, Toews will not be a direct replacement for this upcoming season. Ehlers had 24 goals last year with 39 assists. Toews has not been at 63 or more points since the 2018-19 season. Toews will cost much less than Ehlers, making this a great low-risk signing for the team.
For Toews, this is a chance to get back into the NHL. He will turn 38 at the end of the year, but with a solid season, he could easily extend another two years in the league. Further, he is a native of Winnipeg, meaning that the former Blackhawk gets to play in his hometown this upcoming season. He is also a three-time Stanley Cup Champion. He will bring leadership and experience to this team that is currently lacking, while also getting a chance to play for a fourth Cup.
Jets grade: A-
Toews Grade: B
