The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing with house money right now. Almost nobody outside of their fan base expected them to be in the NBA Play-In Tournament this season. Even fewer people expected Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to turn into a fringe MVP contender who has a legitimate case for making the All-NBA 1st Team. The rest of the Thunder roster has made some serious strides around their star to form one of the NBA's most promising young cores.

It's all gravy for OKC, but what can fans expect from their first postseason action in three seasons? Here are three (3) bold predictions for the Thunder in their 2023 NBA Play-In matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans:

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1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets battered and bruised for 30 points

Let's get one thing out of the way: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will get his points against the Pelicans. The Thunder's offensive lightning rod has made scoring 30 points look as simple as can be, leading the league with 45 games of 30+ points. He eclipsed the 30 mark in three of OKC's four matchups against the Pelicans this year, including his season-high 44-point outing in December.

But if you watched all of those games as I did, you'd know the Pels made SGA work hard for his points. That's because New Orleans employs one of the NBA's best wing defenders in Herb Jones, one of the few players in the league with the size, speed, and strength to keep up with the slithery Thunder star.

Jones has spent more time defending SGA this season than any other defensive assignment. In a sample of over a hundred possessions across their four games this season, Shai shot a pedestrian 40.6 percent from the field and missed all his three-point attempts when matched up with Jones. The Pelicans forward also forced him into nine turnovers, more than double his turnovers forced against any other offensive player. Pelicans head coach Willie Green will surely have them joint at the hip.

I wouldn't recommend taking the under on SGA scoring 30 on Wednesday, but it might take more creativity from Mark Daigneault's playbook and a few more shots than usual to get there.

2. Isaiah Joe swings the game

With so much defensive attention to be given to Shai, how the rest of the Thunder players play off of him will be key. A big night from a peripheral player like Isaiah Joe could very well be the difference in the game.

Joe was one of the most efficient three-point threats in the NBA this season, shooting a career-high 41 percent from deep on over five attempts per game. He's served as SGA's most frequent three-point release valve on the team this year, which is extremely important for someone who penetrates the paint as often as Shai does.

Getting the Thunder's best outside threat going will be crucial against the Pelicans, who are the best team in the league at defending the three-point arc. Opposing teams shoot just 33.9 percent from downtown against New Orleans thanks to their highly switchable lineup of lengthy defenders.

If Isaiah Joe can make them pay from deep, it'll go a long way in forcing the upset. If not, OKC's offense might sputter.

3. Thunder lose nail-biter in New Orleans

It's not impossible for the Thunder to win this game and advance to the second stage of the NBA Play-In Tournament. But all things considered, it's going to be an uphill battle against an also young, yet more experienced Pelicans side.

New Orleans got themselves some seasoning last playoffs, taking the Phoenix Suns to six games while earning a few battle scars in the process. Brandon Ingram proved to be a formidable first option in a playoff series, scoring 27 points on 47.5 percent shooting against a DPOY candidate in Mikal Bridges. While SGA surpassed him in that area during the regular season, postseason play is a different beast entirely.

Home-court advantage will also likely play a massive role in the contest. They had the fifth-best home record in the West at 27-14 while OKC largely struggled away from Paycom Center at just 16-25 on the road.

The Pelicans also match up extremely well with the Thunder. They have the perimeter defenders to harass SGA, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams while also featuring some veteran centers in Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr. who can take advantage of OKC's lack of size at the five spot.

Win or lose, the experience OKC can draw from this game will prove to be invaluable for next season. It's only going to get better from here.