In their last meeting, the Golden State Warriors entered Indiana and dominated the Pacers, winning 131-109 as six-point underdogs. The Pacers hope to return the favor in this matchup when they play the first game of their California road trip. Both teams have important games as they teeter on the edge of getting into the play-in/playoff picture. It is time to continue our NBA odds series with a Pacers-Warriors prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Pacers have alternated wins and losses over their last four games and hold just a 5-5 record in their past ten. A .500 record the rest of the way could be the difference in them getting an automatic playoff bid or going through the play-in tournament. The Pacers are half a game up on the Heat and 76ers for the last automatic bid, thanks to most teams chasing them also being .500 or worse over the same span. They could be as low as eighth once they return from their California trip if they don't string some wins together.
The Warriors must do everything they can to hold off the streaking Houston Rockets. Golden State thought they were firmly in the play-in spot a few weeks ago, but they've been an average team ever since and let the Rockets get back into contention. The Pacers have big wins over Dallas, Orlando, and Oklahoma City over the last ten games, but need to start winning more consistently, like the start of the season when they went to the mid-season tournament finals.
Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Pacers-Warriors Odds
Indiana Pacers: +4.5 (-106)
Moneyline: +166
Golden State Warriors: -4.5 (-114)
Moneyline: -198
Over: 237.5 (-110)
Under: 237.5 (-110)
How to Watch Pacers vs. Warriors
Time: 10 PM ET/7 PM PT
TV: NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports Indiana
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Pacers Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Pacers have been performing well against the spread despite falling off toward the later portion of the season. They are 37-30-3 against the spread and an impressive 18-14-1 on the road. The Warriors are just as good against the spread this season but have done most of their damage on the road. At the Chase Center, the Warriors are just 14-20-2 against the spread. The teams have identical 5-5 overall and ATS records over the last ten.
Indiana continues to be the best offense in basketball. Even though they didn't keep up their record-breaking pace from the start of the season, the Pacers are still averaging 119.2 points per game over the last five. This matchup will serve them well, as the Warriors are in the bottom third of the league in scoring defense, allowing 113.4 points per game.
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread/Win
Indiana's issue all season has been their team defense. They are one of the worst teams in the league at limiting opponents' scoring, as they allow 49.9% shooting from the floor, which is second-worst in the entire NBA. They also allow 120.7 points per game, which is the third-worst.
It should be no surprise that the Warriors shoot three-pointers at a high rate. They shoot the third-most threes per game in the league at 39.3. They are also among the most efficient, hitting threes at a 37.8% clip.
Final Pacers-Warriors Prediction & Pick
These numbers would make you believe the over is the pick for this game. However, the Pacers have seen their games go over just two of the last ten games. The totals went astronomically high in Pacers games at the start of the season, breaking records for highest numbers in NBA history.
These two offenses are too efficient to trust taking the under, but this feels like a back-and-forth game that could go in the Pacers' favor. The Warriors' track record at home this season, and the Pacers' against-the-spread record on the road will make us take Indiana in this matchup.
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Final Pacers-Warriors Prediction & Pick: Pacers +4.5 (-106)
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