Remember back in Week 9 when the Green Bay Packers lost to their division-rival Detroit Lions to fall to 3-6? Or how about three weeks later when they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles to put their record at 4-8 on the season? Well, the Pack hasn’t lost since then, and at 8-8 after a stunning 41-17 Packers Week 17 win over the NFC North-leading Minnesota Vikings, the Packers’ playoffs chances are now alive and well, and the postseason is now within Aaron Rodgers’ sights. The Packers-Vikings game made the final NFC playoff spot a three-team race between Green Bay, Detroit, and the Seattle Seahawks. Here are the Packers’ playoff scenarios heading into Week 18.
Packers’ playoff scenarios
In what was a wild 2022 NFL season, it now all comes down to one game and eight teams fighting for three last playoff spots. On the AFC side, the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars will go head-to-head in the final game to decide the AFC South. And the No. 7 seed will go to one of those two teams, or the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, or Pittsburgh Steelers.
In the NFC, all the divisions are spoken for, and the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants have two of the Wild Card spots clinched. That leaves the No. 7 spot in the NFC for either Green Bay, Seattle, or Detroit.
Heading into the Packers’ Week 17 game, we all knew that Aaron Rodgers and company were hot (winning their last four in a row), but not many (if any) predicted that the Packers-Vikings tilt would be a massive blowout by the home team.
By evening their record at 8-8, the Packers head into Week 18 tied with the Seahawks and Lions. Here is what the three teams' schedule looks like in the last week of the season:
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
As you can see, the Packers-Vikings game set up a de facto playoff game next week. After the Packers' Week 17 win, they have now won five in a row as they set up to face one of the two teams they are competing against for the coveted seventh playoff spot in the NFC.
How Green Bay gets into the playoffs
The Packers' playoff hopes come down to getting their sixth consecutive win at home in Week 18 vs. the Lions.
And believe it or not, the Packers are now the only team in the NFC that controls its own destiny. After four-plus months of up-and-down football, and all the drama that comes with Rodgers, Green Bay is somehow in a prime position to make the postseason.
Getting in over the Lions obviously makes sense, as a Packers win would send them to 9-8, while the Lions would fall to 8-9. No matter what the Seahawks do, though, they can’t get in if the Packers win. That’s because even with identical 9-8 records, without a head-to-head matchup to use as a tiebreaker, and matching 3-2 division records, the final playoff spot would come down to conference record.
After the Week 17 Packers-Vikings game, Green Bay moved to 6-5 against NFC opponents. The Seahawks Week 17 win vs. the Jets didn’t help them in that category and currently sit at 5-6 in their conference. So, if Green Bay and Seattle both beat their division rivals on Sunday, the tiebreaker goes to the Packers.
And one more note on the Packers playoffs, there is no path — win, lose, or draw in Week 18 — for the team to enter the postseason higher than the No. 7 seed.
How the Packers get eliminated
The Packers Week 17 win put them in the driver’s seat to clinch the final NFC playoff spot, but a Packers playoffs appearance is hardly guaranteed.
Outside of Green Bay, Detroit may be the second-hottest team in the NFL. Jared Goff’s squad has won four of their last five and seven of their last nine to go from 1-6 to 8-8 on the season.
The Packers' playoff scenario that puts them on the outside looking in is a Week 18 loss to the Lions, simple as that. The teams last played in Week 9, and the Lions took home a 15-9 victory. If Detroit can do that again, they will knock Green Bay out of the postseason. However, a Lions win doesn’t guarantee them a playoff spot.
Dan Campbell’s bunch also needs some help from the Rams. If the Seahawks win in Week 18 and the Packers lose, it is Pete Carroll’s crew who makes the dance. That’s because the Lions lost to the Seahawks in a 48-45 thriller back in Week 4.
So, to sum up the Packers' playoff scenarios, win and they're in. Lose, and it's the Seahawks unless the NFC West side gets upset by the Rams in Week 18. In that case, the No. 7 slot will go to the Lions.
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