The Padres face the Brewers in Milwaukee! Our MLB odds series has our Padres Brewers prediction, odds, and pick for Wednesday.
The Padres have been decent to start the season with a 10-9 record so far this season. The key has been their offense this season. Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth have been the biggest keys behind the plate and why the Padres have started better than most thought before the season. They went through a fire sale in the offseason after a massively disappointing season last year where they had one of the biggest payrolls in the MLB. Their pitching needs to be better and they added Dylan Cease to bolster that lineup, but they still need to improve after losing both Seth Lugo and Blake Snell in the offseason.
The Brewers have burst onto the scene and after a good season last year are currently tied for the best record in the NL with the Braves. Their offense has been the key to their success. They have the second-ranked team batting average just behind the Braves. Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and Willy Adames have led the way for the Brewers behind the plate and have been the biggest keys to their success on offense in the very early part of the season. The pitching has been okay, ranking right in the middle of the league in team ERA. Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea have had to step up more with Brandon Woodruff injured, but there has not been a massive fall-off without him.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Brewers Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+158)
Moneyline: -102
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-192)
Moneyline: -116
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
How to Watch Padres vs. Brewers
Time: 1:10 pm ET
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres are going with Michael King to start on the mound. He's started out the year with a 2-0 record, a 4.19 ERA, and a 1.50 WHIP. Through 19.1 innings, he has allowed 16 hits, 13 walks, and 12 total runs with nine of them being earned. He also has a total of 19 strikeouts on the year. He has appeared in four total games so far this season and the Padres have won all of those games up to this point. Last season, King was decent, despite a 4-8 record, he had a 2.75 ERA, and a 1.15 WHIP. King gets the start and despite giving up four home runs in his last time out the Padres still won. He gets the start here, but the Brewers' offense is not going to be an easy out for him.
The Padres' offense has started the season red-hot. They are sixth in team batting average at .261 after finishing last season with a .244 batting average. The offense is highlighted mainly by Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jake Cronenworth. Merrill leads the team in batting average at .356, OBP at .433, and total hits at 21. Cronenworth leads the team in RBI at 14 (but is out for this game), while Tatis is the leader in home runs at five. The Padres have the pieces to give any team issues, not just the Brewers with their offensive play and it has been great so far this season.
Why The Brewers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Brewers have been coy about who they are putting on the mound for every game this season and this one is no different. However, with Wade Miley starting on Tuesday, it looks like it will most likely be DL Hall on the mound, but they might also go with the bullpen. The Brewers have gotten decent pitching overall to start the season, as they rank 15th in team ERA. Their bullpen is 18th in FIP and they are eighth in LOB%. Milwaukee's pitchers collectively have the third-lowest walk percentage too. This is a tough task for any pitcher coming into the second game of the series, whether it is Hall or a rotating door with the bullpen.
The offense for the Brewers has been nothing short of great this season. The Brewers are second in runs per game and are one of two teams averaging more than six runs per game. The Brewers are then second in batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage. Christian Yelich is currently out of the lineup due to a back injury, but he leads the team in home runs at five so far this season. William Contreras leads in most of the other categories like batting average at .390, RBI at 15, OBP at .479, and total hits at 23.
Final Padres-Brewers Prediction & Pick
This is an interesting matchup because both teams have the capability of fireworks behind the plate. It is difficult to predict just because the Brewers have not announced a starter on the mound, but the Brewers are still the team to back in this spot. They have the better offense and it is easier to trust whoever the Brewers put on the mound after King's last outing where he got shelled even with the team bailing him out. He gave up four homers in his last outing and this offense is ripe to take advantage of him. Expect the Brewers to win in this spot, but close.
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Final Padres-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Brewers +1.5 (-192)
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