The Padres make the trip to Washington D.C. to face the Nationals! These two teams have been playing very similarly all year and have struggled with consistency. Both teams are also coming into this game red-hot and on winning streaks. Our MLB odds series has our Padres-Nationals prediction, odds, and pick for Wednesday.
Padres-Nationals Projected Starters
Matt Waldron vs. Mitchell Parker
Matt Waldron (5-9) with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched six innings and gave up one run on six hits with zero walks and five strikeouts in a Padres loss.
2024 Road Splits: (3-4) 2.97 ERA
Mitchell Parker (5-5) with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched seven innings and gave up two runs on six hits with one walk and six strikeouts in a Nationals loss.
2024 Home Splits: (3-1) 2.82 ERA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Nationals Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+142)
Moneyline: -116
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-172)
Moneyline: -102
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
How to Watch Padres vs. Nationals
Time: 6:45 pm ET
TV: MASN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres have been inconsistent but have an overall winning record of 53-50 this season. They have won three straight now, following losing two straight before that. The key has been their offense this season where they are second in the league. In comparison, their pitching is in the bottom half of the MLB. Fernando Tatis (IL), Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth have been the biggest keys behind the plate, and why the Padres have surprised a bit as a team. Their pitching needs help with only Michael King and Dylan Cease playing well so far up to this point in the season.
The Padres are starting Matt Waldron on the mound. He has a 5-9 record, a 3.59 ERA, and a 1.16 WHIP. Through 112.2 innings, he has allowed 48 runs on 100 hits with 31 walks and 99 strikeouts. He has started in 20 games so far this season and the Padres have gone 7-13 in those games. Waldron has been solid for a pitching lineup that has not been great overall. He gets a favorable matchup against a Nationals offense that has struggled most of the year this season.
The Padres' offense has been great this year. They are second in team batting average at .260 after finishing with a .244 average last season. The offense is highlighted mainly by Jurickson Profar, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jake Cronenworth in most of the batting categories. Profar leads the way in batting average at .300, is tied with Tatis Jr. and Cronenworth in home runs at 14, and leads in RBI at 59, in OBP at .390, and finally in total hits at 105. Their offense can compete with any team in the MLB. This is a difficult matchup against Parker for the Nationals because he has been a bright spot for an inconsistent Nationals pitching lineup.
Why The Nationals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Nationals have struggled this season as a team. They sit with a 47-54 record in time for the second half of the year. They have won five out of their last six games and three straight leading into this game. They are in the bottom half of the MLB in both pitching and behind the plate which is a big factor in why they have struggled with consistency. Jesse Winker, CJ Abrams, Joey Meneses, and Luis Garcia Jr. have stood out for an offense that has struggled this season in the capital. Trevor Williams, MacKenzie Gore, and Jake Irvin have all been solid up to this point on the mound and have been the best players pitching-wise. The Nationals have talent but have struggled to put it together this season consistently.
The Nationals are starting Mitchell Parker on the mound and he has a 5-5 record, a 3.90 ERA, and a 1.14 WHIP. Through 92.1 innings, Parker has allowed 45 runs on 84 hits with 21 walks and 76 strikeouts. The Nationals are 9-8 in the 17 games he has started this season. Parker has been a bright spot for the Nationals this season in their pitching lineup. He also gets a huge challenge against the Padres and their red-hot offense this season.
The offense for the Nationals has struggled this season. They are 18th in the MLB in team batting average at .240 after having a team batting average of .254 one season ago. CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia Jr., and Jesse Winker stand out and lead the way in most batting categories. Abrams leads in home runs at 15, in RBI at 49, in total hits at 98. Then, Garcia Jr. leads in batting average at .277 and Winker leads in OBP at .380. They get a difficult matchup against Matt Waldron who has been solid for the Padres in his own right for a pitching staff that has needed all the help they can get.
Final Padres-Nationals Prediction & Pick
The Padres have a massive advantage in this game on offense. They are one of the best in the MLB and much better than the Nationals. However, the pitching difference is marginal between Waldron and Parker. That is the difference and Parker should keep this close. Expect the Nationals to cover at home, even if the Padres win outright.
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Final Padres-Nationals Prediction & Pick: Nationals +1.5 (-172)
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