The Washington Nationals host the San Diego Padres for the finale of a 3-game series at Nationals Park on Thursday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Nationals prediction and pick.
Padres-Nationals Projected Starters
Dylan Cease vs. Patrick Corbin
Dylan Cease (9-8) with a 3.76 ERA, 159 strikeouts (1st in MLB), 1.03 WHIP in 122.0 innings.
Last Start: 7.0 innings, one hit, zero runs, one walk, and 10 K's in the 7-0 win over the Cleveland Guardians.
2024 Road Splits: (5-3) with a 4.19 ERA, 78 K's, 20 walks, and eight home runs allowed.
Patrick Corbin (2-9) with a 5.35 ERA, 79 K's, 1.49 WHIP in 111.0 innings.
Last Start: 6.0 innings, three hits, one run, zero walks, and six K's in the 8-5 win over the Cincinnati Reds.
2024 Home Splits: (1-3) with a 5.15 ERA, 38 K's, 19 walks, and eight home runs allowed.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Nationals Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (-111)
Moneyline: -176
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-108)
Moneyline: +148
Over: 9 (-104)
Under: 9 (-118)
How to Watch Padres vs. Nationals
Time: 12:05 pm ET/9:05 am PT
TV: MLB.TV, ESPN+
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
Dylan Cease is coming off the top start of his Padres' tenure. The Guardians are one of the best teams in the league and have an offense that pitchers dread to face. This time out, Cease was able to shut them down. He allowed one hit and one walk on his way to a shutout performance. Cease now has 159 strikeouts, which is the most in the league. The former Cy Young runner-up will not likely win the Cy Young award again this year unless he continues his dominance, however, it's clear he is one of the toughest pitchers to hit when on his game. If Cease can give the Padres a quality start, then they will cover this spread.
The Padres won Game 1 of the series Tuesday night thanks to an unusual home run from Luis Arraez, and Jurickson Profar followed up with one on the very next at-bat. Jackson Merrill had two RBIs as well and a lot of their recent success offensively is due to those three players. The Friars need Arraez and Profar to continue their dominant hitting at the top of the lineup. Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Xander Bogaerts are all hitting the ball well right now also.
San Diego remains the league leader in hits with 908, three more than the Houston Astros. Furthermore, they are second in batting average at .260, right behind Houston at .261. SD is also 4th in team strikeouts with 900.
Why The Nationals Will Cover The Spread/Win
Just a month ago, Washington was playing very well. Now, the Nationals have dropped four straight against the Padres after starting an unnecessary rivalry back in San Diego a few weeks back. Remember when Keibert Ruiz got in Profar's face the day after his walk-off against them? Well, since then, SD has dominated them and even shut them out in Game 1 last night. You are probably better off not giving Profar any added motivation, just ask Will Smith. Washington now aims to finally get something going as they are 5-5 in their last 10 games and now seven games below .500.
Patrick Corbin pitched a decent game the last time he faced the Friars in SD. He reached 7.0 innings, allowing five hits and three runs. He even K'd up five. His numbers have been consistent but overall not great. As a vet, he knows what it takes to go deep into games and the Nats need him to again desperately.
James Wood played very well when he debuted as a National a few weeks back. However, he has slowed down tremendously. He is batting just .232 with an OPS of .636. When the Padres traded him to the Nationals for Juan Soto, the Nationals won that trade with all the young star talent they received. The core of Wood, CJ Abrams, and McKenzie Gore all developed under the Padres and will be the future of the Nationals. As of now, their offense isn't deep enough to be a playoff team.
Final Padres-Nationals Prediction & Pick
The Padres are the much better team and should take the series finale with Cease on the bump. Take the Friars to win.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Padres-Nationals Prediction & Pick: Padres ML (-176), Under 9 (-118)
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