The San Diego Padres look to bounce back today after a game-one loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Pirates prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Padres lost two of three to the Nationals over the weekend and were set for the bounce back with Yu Darvish on the mound. Darvish was a late scratch though due to illness, and the Padres lost again. Instead, the Padres sent Reiss Knehr to the mound and it did not go well for him. He gave up five runs with two home runs in just two innings of completed work. In the second inning, Jack Suwinski walked and then scored on a Ji Hwan Bae sacrifice fly. Nick Gonzales tripled to right field and Andrew McCutchen added a single to plate two more runs. Knehr went back out for the third but gave up back-to-back home runs to Carlos Santana and Suwkinski resulting in him leaving the game. The Pirates would score nine runs in the game on their way to a big win.
Here are the Padres-Pirates MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Pirates Odds
San Diego Pirates: -1.5 (+106)
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-128)
Over: 8.5 (-106)
Under: 8.5 (-114)
How To Watch Padres vs. Pirates
TV: SDPA/ATTP
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 7:05 PM ET/ 4:05 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
Tensions are high in the Padres clubhouse, and they should be. San Diego has lost three straight and six of their last ten. They are now five games under .500 and 10.5 games back in the NL West. The offense scored four runs last night, but they have just seven in their last three games. When the offense is on, it's solid. In their four wins in the last ten games, they have scored 30 runs. In the six losses, they have scored 16 runs. The inconsistency has been hurting them, and it has led to an offense that ranks 21st in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 14th in OBP, 23rd in batting average, and 20th in slugging.
It was Xander Bogaerts that called out the team after their recent offensive embarrassments. After an amazing start to the season in which he hit over .300 while driving in 16 runs in the first month, he has cooled off. This month he is hitting .250 with an OBP of .321. He has scored just eight times while driving in just seven runs. He has just one home run and six doubles on the month. Manny Machado has been fair hitting in front of Bogaerts. He is hitting .290 on the month with 14 RBIs and four home runs. He has also scored 13 times this month. Juan Soto has not been horrible either. He is hitting .286 on the month with four home runs and 15 RBIs. He did have a home run robbed on a beautiful play last night against the Pirates.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been hot as of late. He has 17 RBIs while hitting six home runs and batting .344 on the month. He also has 12 doubles and scored 21 runs this month so far. The hottest bat as of late has been Ha-Seong Kim. Kim has just ten RBIs on the month, but seven of them have come in his last six games. He is batting .295 on the month, with 15 runs scored.
Blake Snell will be going to the mound today for the Padres. He is 4-6 on the season with a 3.22 ERA. In his last five starts, Snell has been nearly untouchable. He has pitched 31 innings while giving up eight hits. He has also stuck out ten or more batters in his last three games and has 50 total in his last five. All the while, Snell has given up just a single run on a solo home run at Coors Field. That gives him a .29 ERA in his last five starts, and the only run was due to a long ball at Coors Field.
Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
The Pirates won their second game in their last 15 last night. It was a big offensive night and the most runs they have scored since June 9th. It was also the second most they have scored all month. This season the Pirates are 25th in the majors in runs scored with an average of 4.13 runs per game. They are 20th in batting average, 19th in on-base percentage, and 23rd in slugging so far this year.
Last night was a good night for Jack Suwinski. He went 1-4, with a walk, a home run, and two runs scored. He did strike out and has been going through that a lot lately. Suwinski struck out five times in the Marlins series, with four of those coming in one game. Suwinski has 20 strikeouts on the month, and when he is not striking out, he is not making a ton of good contact. He is hitting just .158 this month. He does have five home runs and a double, meaning six of his nine hits for the month are for extra bases.
Carlos Santana also had a good game yesterday. He drove in two runs, scored twice, hit a home run, and went three for five at the plate. It was his fourth home run this month and gave him 15 RBIs for the month. He has also scored 12 times. Santana has not been hitting great this month, sitting at just .247, but that is higher than his season-long average.Ke'Bryan Hayes has been one of the best bats in the lineup as of late. He is hitting .337 so far this month, with three home runs, a triple, and four doubles. He has driven in 13 runs as well while scoring eight times. The biggest negative is he has not drawn a walk since May 22nd.
Mitch Keller will bring his 8-3 record and 3.45 ERA to the hill today. He has been up and down this month. Last time out he went seven innings and gave up just one run. On June 11th he went seven innings and gave up just one just. In the other two starts, he did not make it out of the sixth inning and had up four or more runs.
Final Padres-Pirates Prediction & Pick
The Pirates were once leading their division, but have fallen apart as of late. So have the Padres. Both have been starting games strongly this year as well. The hitters are hitting just .220 against Keller the first time they see him in a game. Batters are hitting just .243 against Snell the second time. Even better, both have strikeouts per walk rates over 4.5 the first time through the order. This game will start low scoring and will continue that way. A low-scoring game favors the team getting runs as well.
Final Padres-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Pirates +1.5 (-128) and Under 8.5 (-114)
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