The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks began their four-game series on Thursday night, with the Phillies taking the first game 6-4. The Diamondbacks returned the favor on Friday night by sneaking out a 3-2 victory. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
The Phillies are in one of their worst stretches of the season, losing six of their last ten games. However, they returned to above-average form on their trip to California when they beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in two of three games. The Diamondbacks have been hot after starting the season slow. Last year's World Series runner-ups are now 64-53 and 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for first in the National League West.
Phillies-Diamondbacks Projected Starters
Cristopher Sanchez vs. Merrill Kelly
Cristopher Sanchez (8-7) with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.
Last Start: @ Dodgers, 6 IP, 2 SO, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER
2024 Road Splits: (2-4) with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP.
Name (2-0) with a 2.19 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP.
Last Start: 4/15 vs. Cubs, 5 IP, 5 SO, 3 H, 2 BB, 1 ER
2024 Home Splits: (1-0) with a 1.93 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Diamondbacks Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+122)
Moneyline: -132
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-146)
Moneyline: +112
Over: 9 (-108)
Under: 9 (-112)
How to Watch Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10 PM PT
TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, ARID
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Diamondbacks had a doubleheader on August 7th which caused Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez to both pitch. The games put them each on three days of rest for this game, and they are the most well-rested members of the Diamondbacks' starting rotation. It looked like they may have to re-call a starter from the minor leagues or do a bullpen day. However, Merrill Kelly looks to be the starter after going on the injured list with a shoulder strain after two starts in April.
The Diamondbacks will ease Kelly into the game, which could start an early bullpen day. The Diamondbacks bullpen has been average this season, but have been struggling lately with a 5.45 ERA over their last three games.
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
Cristopher Sanchez pitched well for the Phillies so far this season, but his play away from Citizens Bank Park is a point of contention. Sanchez could be lucky that his ERA is only 4.78, as he has a shocking 1.65 WHIP. The number drops to 1.02 at home, explaining his stellar 2.32 ERA.
The Diamondbacks have been mashing lefty pitching for most of the season, but their play over the last ten games has been lights out. They are batting .317 with a .364 on-base percentage and 6.4 runs/nine.
The Phillies' offense has stalled out recently, contributing to their losing streak. They averaged just 4.8 runs/nine over their last ten games, and are batting .259 with a .364 on-base percentage.
Final Phillies-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
Arizona's success against left-handed pitching gives them a massive edge in this matchup. Sanchez has been one of the Phillies' strongest pitchers this season but was shelled in some games recently. He shut down the Dodgers in his previous game, but they aren't a great hitting team against lefties. The Diamondbacks may bring Sanchez back down to earth in this matchup if they can get the bats going early.
The Diamondbacks' pitching situation is concerning, but they'll beat the Phillies if this game becomes an offensive battle. Take the Diamondbacks to continue their march to the top of the National League West standings and win the series' final game on Sunday.
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Final Phillies-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+112)
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