After a terrific start to the season, the New Orleans Pelicans began tumbling down the NBA standings once the New Year hit, with a 7-19 record across January and February – in part due to injury concerns – putting their playoff hopes in jeopardy. They returned to form just in the nick of time, however, to clinch a spot in the play-in tournament, where they’ll now face the OKC Thunder in a win-or-go-home situation. These are four reasons why they can sink the season of OKC.

Form

That aforementioned form that the Pelicans recaptured with their season on the brink has come at exactly the right time, and will hold them in good stead against a Thunder team whose own form has been relatively indifferent. New Orleans hit form around mid-March and have held onto it over the past month, winning nine of their last 11 games of the regular season to clinch the ninth seed, and even without Zion Williamson they've been looking the part of a playoff team.

OKC, in contrast, are not playing even close to their best of late. Their record sits at 4-6 over the past ten games, and has included losses to the Indiana Pacers and Charlotte Hornets. What’s more, their only wins in that time have come against the Portland Trail Blazers, Detroit Pistons, as well as the Utah Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies over the last two games of the season when neither played anything resembling a full-strength squad. An in-form Pelicans side will provide a far sterner challenge.

Postseason experience

The Pelicans aren’t exactly rolling in playoff experience, but they have a significant advantage over the Thunder in this department. Of their starters, Trey Murphy and Herb Jones are obviously relatively new to the league, but each of the in-form Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas has at least seven seasons experience in the NBA. Of that trio, Ingram has the least playoff experience, with last year’s first round loss to the Phoenix Suns his only trip to the postseason. But both McCollum and Valanciunas have been there plenty, the former having 63 playoff games to his name and the latter 54.

Between their starting five, the Thunder have a grand total of 19 games playoff experience. Both Jaylin and Jalen Williams’ are, of course, in their rookie year, while Josh Giddey is in just his second and hasn’t yet tasted the postseason. Lu Dort got six games worth of experience in 2020, while Gilgeous-Alexander played that same series and one the year prior, too. Neither of them has won a playoff series or even played in one for three years, and yet they lead the way for OKC in terms of postseason experience.

Home court advantage

It’s no secret that home court plays a big role in the NBA, and neither of these teams has been immune to that fact this season. The Pelicans have been hard to beat at the Smoothie King Center, boasting a record of 27-14 in their 41 games there so far this season. That’s including a 1-5 record during their down period in January; outside of that month, they’ve won 26 of 35 games at home

Meanwhile, the Thunder have struggled on the road, with a record of 16-25 standing in stark contrast to their impressive record at home. In a win-or-go-home situation, the impact of the crowd and playing in an arena with which you’re familiar is even more significant, particularly for a young team like OKC, so that this game is being played in New Orleans is a major advantage for the Pelicans.

Head-to-head record this year

Rounding out the list of reasons why the Pelicans will beat the Thunder in their upcoming play-in matchup is the head-to-head record between the two sides this season. New Orleans won three of their four matchups against Oklahoma City in the regular season, winning each of the first three before losing the fourth. In fairness to the Thunder, each of those first three games was decided by four points or less, but the Pelicans still got the chocolates in each of them. And, in the last of the four matchups, which the Thunder won, Ingram was absent while the Thunder went in with a full strength lineup. Those four results don’t bode particularly well for OKC heading into this game.

It’s been a rollercoaster season so far for the Pelicans, with a hot start leading into an icy period mid-season, before they ended strongly to hang onto a spot in the play-in tournament. Now, they need to win two consecutive games to earn a spot in the playoffs. A loss here will mark the end of their season, but with form, experience, and home court advantage on their side, there’s plenty of reason to believe they’ll keep their season alive for at least one more game.