The Miami Heat are coming off of a 2018-19 NBA campaign in which they won 39 games, and outside of Dwyane Wade's retirement tour, there was genuinely nothing exciting about the team.
But during the offseason, the Heat made a couple of significant moves, swinging a sign-and-trade for Jimmy Butler and then trading Hassan Whiteside to the Portland Trail Blazers.
Because of the addition of Butler, there are many who have Miami pegged as a playoff team in the Eastern Conference for the 2019-20 season, but I am not ready to go that far yet.
In spite of the fact that Butler is an All-Star caliber player, something the Heat did not have this past year, there are still a lot of question marks surrounding this club.
The most pressing issue seems to be Miami's perimeter shooting, or lack thereof.
Butler is not known as a three-point marksman. Justise Winslow has significantly improved his outside shot, but whether or not he is a reliable long-range shooter remains to be seen. Bam Adebayo is not a big who can space the floor, and Dion Waiters is about as inconsistent as they come. Goran Dragic? He's good from downtown one year, and below average the next.
Really, the only consistently solid three-point shooter the Heat have is Kelly Olynyk, and he is someone who could end up getting traded sometime before the February deadline.
Another issue Miami has is its backcourt depth. The Heat have a host of inexperienced guards battling for playing time (and roster spots), whether that is Tyler Herro or Kendrick Nunn.
This is something that could develop into a rather big problem for Erik Spoelstra's club if no other moves are made between now and the start of the season.
You have to think that at some point, the Heat will make a trade to address the issue, if not now, then sometime during the season. But let's also remember that Miami wants to maintain cap flexibility so it can be a big spender next summer, so the Heat may be somewhat limited in what they can actually accomplish on the trade market between now and February.
Outside of Butler, Miami lacks elite-level talent. I do like Adebayo a heck of a lot up front and think he could become a double-double guy this year, but he is more of a really good supplementary piece rather than a central building block.
Waiters can fill it up for stretches, but at his core, he is an inefficient volume scorer along the same lines of J.R. Smith and Nick Young (but better). We know the deal on Dragic by now, and it's getting to a point where we don't even know if he'll be able to stay healthy.
One guy to watch is Winslow, who has yet to really get his due as a phenomenal defensive player and could end up making an All-Defensive Team this coming season. He is essentially to the Heat what Marcus Smart is to the Boston Celtics and may actually be their second-most valuable piece behind Butler.
But as far as Miami making the postseason?
The Bucks, 76ers, Celtics, Pacers and Nets are all markedly better than the Heat. That will leave Miami fighting with the Magic, Raptors and Pistons for one of the final three playoff spots (heck, maybe the Bulls, too), and I am not entirely confident that the Heat are better than any of those teams.
Of course, things change over the duration of an 82-game campaign. Injuries happen, trades are made, breakout players surface and surprises occur. But I think it would take at least one of those things to happen for Miami to be anything more than a fringe playoff team, even in the weak Eastern Conference.
Look for the Heat to win in the neighborhood of 40-45 games, with 45 wins probably being just a bit out of their reach.
There just isn't enough talent here for me to justify penciling in Miami for a playoff spot, and again, there are too many holes in terms of depth, versatility and modern NBA philosophy.
This should really just be seen as a bridge year for the Heat, as Pat Riley has been preaching that the summer of 2020 is when Miami will start to make hay, when the Heat will have a ton of cap room and may be able to put another star or two alongside of Butler.
Until then, expect more of the same of what we have seen the past few years from Miami: a relatively uninteresting ballclub fighting for one of the last playoff spots, only to eventually be bounced out of the first round if it even gets there.
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