The Tampa Bay Rays might be running on a relatively cheap payroll, but that has not stopped them from putting a competitive team together. If they sustain their current form, they are going to make the MLB postseason again. But how far they would go in the playoffs will depend on a few major factors, three of which we are going to discuss below.
3. Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan
The Rays are likely going to go as far as where their pitching will take them. That's actually been the narrative for the Rays for several years, including this season, of course. So far in 2022, Tampa Bay's starters have a collective 3.41 ERA. That's the third-best in the majors. Only the starters of the high-powered Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros have lower ERAs than the Rays. Much of the weight on the backs of the Rays' pitching staff is carried by the pair of Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan, who will likely go 1-2 in the playoffs.
Those two starters are good enough to let the Rays steal the first two games of a series, regardless of who they will get paired up with in the postseason. Rasmussen has been lights out on the mound for the most part of the season. As of this writing, he carries a 10-6 record with a 2.92 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. While he flunked a recent test in a start against the Houston Astros in which he allowed four earned runs on six hits in six innings of a 4-0 loss at home, he's still someone the Rays could rely upon.
Meanwhile, McClanahan is having an even better season than Rasmussen. McClanahan brandishes a 12-5 record to go along with a 2.13 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. He has the stuff to silence the big bats, as he's shown this season in starts against the likes of the Toronto Blue Jays and the New York Yankees. He has only allowed an earned run in 12.0 innings across two games versus the Blue Jays so far in the regular season. Against the Yankees, he's surrendered only three earned runs in 18.0 total innings. Depth may be a bit of an issue for the Rays' starting rotation in the playoffs, but if Rasmussen and McClanahan answer the call in the playoffs as they have always been in the regular season, the Rays are going to be an annoying bunch to get rid off.
2. Bullpen is still key
Much has been said about the Rays' bullpen that has blown so many saves this season. At the time of this writing, they have a 26-23 record in games decided by a single run. It has also taken big blows with injuries to Andrew Kittredge and J.P. Feyereisen but the Rays' relievers have also become more stable of late, with a 2.63 ERA and .231 BABIP since the start of September.
On the season, the Rays' bullpen still owns a 3.26 ERA, which is good for sixth in the majors. That group's FIP is at a higher 3.81, highlighting its shortcomings in part because it doesn't do well in home-run suppression. Tampa Bay's relievers have an 11.2 percent HR/FB rate — 10th highest in the big leagues — but outside of that, they can be trusted. If the Rays' bullpen finds a way to limit the power of opposing hitters, Tampa Bay should see big improvements. For one, the Rays' relievers are also doing a good job at preventing balls from going into play, as evidenced by their .269 BABIP, which cracks the top five in the MLB.
1. The offense will be fine
The Rays' offense is generally viewed as a glaring weakness of the team. It's not hard to agree with that. Tampa Bay has been lacking at the plate this season. It is just 18th in the big leagues with 619 runs and 25th with only 130 home runs. The Rays are batting just .242 /311/.382 as well. But dig a little deeper and you would be more inspired by the team's offense than by the aforementioned basic stats. Take for example the fact that the Rays have six qualified hitters with at least an OPS+ of 110.
Yandy Diaz leads the group with a 144 OPS+. Randy Arozarena is second with 128 OPS+, while Harold Ramirez is third with an OPS+ of 125. Notice that that group doesn't include the talented Wander Franco because he missed several games due to injury. He is someone who could heat up in the playoffs. In the American League Division Series against the Boston Red Sox, Franco slashed .368/.368/.789 to go with two home runs and four RBI in four games. The Rays lost that series, but Franco got a taste of playing under the bright lights of the playoffs. He's someone who could carry the Rays with his bat in the postseason.
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