As we reach the final lap of the NBA regular season, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. While some teams have already clinched their fate, others continue to jockey for positioning such as the Philadelphia 76ers.
Like it's been for the majority of the year, the Eastern Conference standings are air-tight. While the Miami Heat currently sits in the top spot, the Milwaukee Bucks, Sixers, and Boston Celtics are a game and a half behind or fewer. It might seem crazy to say given how close they are to securing the number one seed for the second-straight season, but the Sixers might be better entering the playoffs as the fourth seed.
There are multiple reasons why this could be the optimal path, the first being health. Like every other playoff team, the Sixers want their top players as close to 100% physically as they can. Pumping the brakes on the race for seeding would all Doc Rivers to get Joel Embiid and James Harden some added rest before the postseason push. Given that the Chicago Bulls currently sit five games back as the fifth seed, even with sitting stars, it's unlikely the Sixers drop lower than the fourth seed.
Next, and most importantly, is matchups. Based on how things are shaping up, one of Chicago or Cleveland will likely finish as the fifth seed. As two teams with limited playoff experience, they are a prime opponent for round one. Sliding to the fourth spot also means squaring off against Miami in the semifinals.
Along with being inexperienced, the Cavaliers and Bulls are two opponents the Sixers have fared well against this season. Between seven total matchups with both teams, the Sixers have a perfect record of 7-0. Chicago is also a team Joel Embiid has easily had his way with, averaging 32.8 PPG on 61.8 TS% in four meetings. The MVP frontrunner also averaged 32.3 PPG, 13.3 RPG, and 6.7 APG against Cleveland.
Getting on this side of the bracket is by far the lesser of two evils. The Miami Heat are going to be a tough playoff opponent, but it beats facing off against the defending champions in round two. Staying in third place or jumping up to second could result in an extremely tough path to the conference finals for the Sixers.
Depending on how things unfold in the play-in tournament, the Sixers could see the Brooklyn Nets in round one if they finish as the second seed. Following the new mandates in New York City that allows Kyrie Irving to play in home games, Brooklyn is shaping up to be one of the scariest seven or eight seeds in history. Facing off against Irving and Kevin Durant in the opening round is not an optimal scenario for a team that had to integrate a superstar on the fly in the final stretch of the regular season.
Boston and Milwaukee are two of the hottest teams in the league right now, and Brooklyn is about to be at full strength. The Sixers are much better off letting them fight it out on one side of the bracket than making their journey tough. Based on how things are shaping up, the Sixers might be better off bowing out of the race than trying to land a top seed.
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