A Reddit user outlines the one scenario that TSM makes it to the LCS Spring 2022 Playoffs, and it’s not looking good for TSM fans.

Self-professed lover of standing maths u/i-am-grok took to the League of Legends Reddit to discuss the solo (no pun intended) scenario that Team Solo Mid makes it to playoffs. To set the scene: there are 10 teams in the LCS. Six teams will qualify for the LCS Spring 2022 Playoffs. So far, only one team is locked for Playoffs: Cloud9. TSM is in 10th place, with a 2-11 standing. It is nothing but an uphill battle and the TSM roster has their work cut out for them.

For TSM to qualify for Playoffs without a tiebreaker, they first need to reach 7 wins. This means winning all of their remaining matches, which are against Cloud9, Immortals Progressive, 100 Thieves, Counter Logic Gaming, and Team Liquid. Even if they somehow manage this gargantuan task, it’s still only half of the work done. The four teams above TSM are the following:

  • Evil Geniuses (6W – 7L)
  • Counter Logic Gaming (5W – 8L)
  • Golden Guardians (5W – 8L)
  • Immortals Progressive (4W – 9L)

All of these teams need to stay under 7 wins each. In the final two weeks of LCS Spring 2022 Group Stage, all teams still have five games left. TSM making Playoffs means that all four of the teams above lose all of their games where they don’t play each other. In other words, if any of the four teams above play Cloud9, Team Liquid, FlyQuest, Dignitas, or 100 Thieves, they need to lose. There are 16 games that satisfy this condition, and TSM needs the single possibility to still have a shot.

But that’s not all. There are exactly four games that happen within this group of four teams:

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  • IMT vs CLG
  • GG vs EG
  • GG vs IMT
  • EG vs CLG

As previously mentioned, all of these teams need to close out the Group Stage at 6 wins or lower, which is only possible given the following permutation:

  • IMT win vs CLG
  • GG win vs EG
  • IMT win vs GG
  • CLG win vs EG

All in all, there are 33,554,432 outcomes still possible given the 25 games in the next two weekends of LCS. TSM only makes it to Playoffs without tiebreakers in one scenario.

For the non-TSM fans, the soonest TSM gets eliminated is when Evil Geniuses win against Dignitas and Cloud9 win against TSM this weekend.

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