Eric Musselman and the Arkansas Razorbacks take on Jerry Stackhouse’s Vanderbilt Commodores in this SEC tournament opening-round matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Arkansas-Vanderbilt prediction and pick.
After starting the year ranked inside KenPom’s top fifteen (currently 106th), things have not gone to plan for Musselman and company. It may have taken three months, but Arkansas has finally found its identity. The aggressive nature Musselman teams pride themselves on that was missing in January has resurfaced. Temple transfer Khalif Battle has averaged 32.6 points per game over the last five games thanks to relentless attacks to the rim.
Florida was one of the hottest teams in the country entering last weekend. That was until they went to Memorial Gym and lost to Vanderbilt, 78-79. Ven-Allen Lubin went for 23 points and 11 rebounds securing his third double-double of SEC play. His previous? A 19-point, 12-rebound output in a road win over Arkansas just two weeks ago.
Jerry Stackhouse has Eric Musselman’s number as of late – but Arkansas has found its groove to start March.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Vanderbilt-Arkansas Odds
Vanderbilt: +5.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +202
Arkansas: -5.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -250
Over: 148.5 (-110)
Under: 148.5 (-110)
How to Watch Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas
Time: 7:00pm ET/4:00pm PT
TV: SECN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Vanderbilt Will Cover The Spread/Win
Initially, Arkansas seems to be the popular pick due to their offensive resurgence and talent. But this includes a home loss to Vanderbilt where the Commodores got whatever they wanted inside. While Arkansas’ offensive efficiency ranks 40th in the past three weeks, their defense ranks 140th. Vanderbilt was able to eclipse 80 points for the first time all season just two weeks ago at Arkansas. Ven-Allen Lubin had the most efficient game of the season shooting 9-10 from the floor. Also, Tyrin Lawrence tied his career high with 14 free throw attempts. Interestingly, the Commodores shot only 4-16 (25%) from three so a path to over 90 points was there. Long story short, Vanderbilt can put up points on this Razorback defense.
Second, despite Arkansas getting to the free-throw line 31 times in the previous matchup, Vanderbilt’s defense still ranks 2nd best in the SEC in defensive free throw rate (28.9%). Arkansas will still do everything they can to get to the line, but knowing Vanderbilt defends without fouling at the 2nd best rate in the conference does hold value.
Importantly, Vanderbilt has been the 18th-best team nationally and 1st in the SEC at not turning the ball over lately. With an offensive turnover rate of just 12.2% over the past three weeks the Commodores should see plenty of quality looks. Ezra Manjon played a team-high 36 minutes in the previous matchup and did not turn the ball over once.
Why Arkansas Will Cover The Spread/Win
First, throw up the full season numbers. This Arkansas team has had so many different variations of lineups and rotations it hurts my head. In late February something clicked with this team. A road win in College Station over Texas A&M on February 20th saw three Razorbacks shoot double-digit free throws. Ever since Arkansas has rekindled its aggressive nature. When filtering BartTorvik to show data from February 20th until now, the results are interesting.
Arkansas ranks 59th nationally over the past six games which is far better than their full-season rank of 105th. Ranking 59th lands as the seventh-best team in the SEC over this span as well, ranking better than teams like Mississippi State (66th) and Alabama (78th). Much of it is Khalif Battle’s relentless downhill attacks, but the Razorbacks are defending the perimeter much better. Arkansas’ full-season three-point defense is 34.1% but over the past three weeks they have knocked that down to 30.9%.
The Arkansas frontcourt had one of their poorest games in the previous matchup. Makhi Mitchell had an unusual night, to say the least. Here are Mitchell’s past seven scoring outputs: 18, 19, 13, 0, 13, 22, 21. One of these does not look like the other which just happened to be against Vanderbilt. Additionally, Trevon Brazile was not much of a factor as he fouled out in just 17 minutes. Expect a far better game out of the Razorback bigs.
Final Vanderbilt-Arkansas Prediction & Pick
Vanderbilt has won the past three matchups despite what many would think. And what is most intriguing, is that this is the worst Arkansas team in the Musselman era. After beating Arkansas two weeks ago and then knocking off red-hot Florida, the Commodores have a newfound confidence. VSiN’s early betting splits have 92% of bets and 90% of the handle on Arkansas, as expected. Arkansas may win here, but Vegas cashes in on the spread. I can not believe I am saying this, but give me Stackhouse and the points to kick off the SEC tournament.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Vanderbilt-Arkansas Prediction & Pick: Vanderbilt +5.5 (-102)
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