So much for the Golden State Warriors' good problem of sussing out a rotational numbers crunch on the wing and interior after trading for Lauri Markkanen.
The Finnish star is reportedly unlikely to sign an extension with the Utah Jazz when he becomes eligible for a new deal on August 6th. As a result, Markkanen is set to spend the entirety of 2024-25 in Salt Lake City, all but ensuring Golden State enters another season of Stephen Curry's twilight without realistic championship hopes.
There's still a chance Mike Dunleavy Jr. and the front office make the major win-now move needed to vault the Dubs up the Western Conference pecking order before the February 6th trade trade deadline. But whichever star hits the market between now and then almost surely won't be as clean an on-court fit as Markkanen, and it's naive to assume Golden State would have the best league-wide trade package necessary to get that impact player to San Francisco anyway.
Where the Warriors' roster—especially at the top—stands now, basically, looks a lot like what it's poised to when the championship arms race ends after the trade deadline. With Markkanen staying in Utah and that resulting, depressing prospect in mind, here's an early projection of Golden State's starting lineup for 2024-25.
Are Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga locked in as Warriors starters?
One tidbit easily overlooked for non-Warriors fans in Jake Fischer's reporting for Yahoo! Sports on Markkanen's future? The notion that Golden State views both Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga as starters this season.
“Utah has made clear it prioritizes sophomore guard Brandin Podziemski over Jonathan Kuminga from Golden State, sources said, although the Warriors have envisioned both players in starting roles for next year.”
Podziemski and Kuminga emerging as full-time starters going forward is a prudent next step for the Dubs no matter where players and team go from here. They're easily Golden State's most valuable prospects in a vacuum, either readily available trade bait for a team willing to send an unhappy star to the Bay for a reasonable price or the foundation of the Warriors' post-Curry future. Either way, Golden State needs to get as strong a grasp as possible on how Podziemski and Kuminga can impact winning at the highest level, and that means letting them play through mistakes in 2024-25 the way Steve Kerr never has.
For this exercise, they're entrenched as starters next to Curry and Draymond Green. The fifth member of that group seems most up for debate, but the answer is as obvious as it is frustrating for Dub Nation. Andrew Wiggins gives Curry, Podziemski, Kuminga and Green the on-ball defense, multi-level scoring punch and size and athleticism on the wing that quartet needs to scrape its peak.
A stronger indicator of Wiggins nabbing that fifth starter spot? Lineups featuring him next to Curry, Podziemski, Kuminga and Green last season sported a gaudy +12.5 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass, courtesy of dominant defense and solid play on the other end. Outlier opponent shooting didn't account for that unit's stingy 107.0 defensive rating, either.
Finally sliding Kuminga up to small forward and inserting Trayce Jackson-Davis next to Green up front would give Golden State the size it lacks. There's a case to be made that a healthy De'Anthony Melton brings more to the table than Podziemski as Curry's partner in the backcourt. Moses Moody is definitely a more reliable floor-spacer than Wiggins, with room to improve contingent on significant playing time, right?
Those are the possibilities Steve Kerr and his coaching staff will be mulling before training camp tips off in late September. As the regular season draws closer and closer, though, don't be surprised nor discouraged when the Warriors settle on a familiar starting five to begin 2024-25. Capped as that lineup's ceiling may be, it's still the best Golden State can do after losing out on Markkanen to finish the offseason.
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