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The Golden State Warriors are entering the 2025-26 season with a strange mix of stability and uncertainty. Stability, because the core of Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green remains intact; uncertainty, because the franchise has made zero moves in free agency while other Western Conference contenders reshaped their rosters.
Coming off a 48-34 season and a Western Conference semi-final exit to the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Warriors face pressing questions: Can Curry sustain his brilliance in Year 17? Will Jimmy Butler continue to elevate the group? Can the front office resolve the Jonathan Kuminga situation and bring in the reinforcements Curry hinted at during his ninth annual Curry Camp?
Let’s dive deep into record predictions, playoff outlook, and bold forecasts for what could be one of the most pivotal seasons in Golden State’s dynastic run.
A look back: 2024-25 in review
The 2024-25 season was a tale of two halves for Golden State. Before the trade deadline, the team hovered around .500 and looked like an aging contender in decline. Then came the blockbuster acquisition of Jimmy Butler. The fiery two-way forward immediately gave the Warriors an identity boost.
Curry was stellar once again, averaging 24.5 points, six assists, and 4.4 rebounds, while leading the league in free-throw percentage (93.3%) for the fifth time in his career. Butler added defensive intensity and clutch scoring, while Draymond Green remained the connective tissue that kept the system flowing.
Unfortunately, postseason hopes ended prematurely when Curry strained his hamstring in the semi-final. Without him at full strength, the Warriors bowed out in five games against the Timberwolves.
The question heading into 2025-26: Was that the last gasp of a fading dynasty, or the groundwork for one more deep playoff run?
The offseason stalemate
The Warriors are the only team in the NBA not to make a single offseason move. Much of this is tied to the Jonathan Kuminga holdout, which has left the Warriors in a holding pattern. Potential veteran signings like Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton remain on the table, but nothing will move forward until Kuminga’s situation is resolved.
Curry himself admitted at camp that the roster needs a few “pieces to take us to the next level,” but he also expressed confidence in the team’s identity and veteran core. The lack of movement is a gamble by management, one that could either preserve continuity or leave the Warriors outmatched in a rapidly improving Western Conference.
Crucial Warriors games to watch
Two games stand out on the Warriors’ schedule: Jan. 22 at Dallas Mavericks (Rivals Week): A tone-setting game for playoff seeding implications. Followed by the Minnesota Timberwolves on Jan. 24, a rematch of last year’s playoff elimination. Expect extra intensity as the Warriors seek revenge.
Beyond those matchups, the Warriors face a brutal stretch in late December with road games in Toronto, Brooklyn, and Charlotte in five days. Surviving that trip will be critical for playoff positioning.
Projected record: 47-35
Despite their stagnant offseason, the Warriors’ core remains strong enough to win close to 50 games. Curry may be 37, but he hasn’t shown signs of slowing down significantly. Butler’s presence ensures they won’t collapse defensively, and Green’s leadership remains invaluable.
That said, age and lack of depth will cost them in back-to-back scenarios and against younger, faster teams. Expect a slight regression from last year’s 48-34 record, landing them at 47–35.
Predicted Western Conference seed: No. 6
The Western Conference is stacked: Denver remains elite with Nikola Jokić, Minnesota is rising, Oklahoma City remains the favorite, Memphis gets Ja Morant back healthy, and Phoenix has retooled around Devin Booker.
Golden State will be competitive, but its lack of roster upgrades likely keeps it out of the top four. A sixth seed feels realistic enough to avoid the Play-In Tournament, but not elite.
Playoff prediction: Second-round exit
If the Warriors finish sixth, they’ll likely draw a first-round matchup with a Denver or Oklahoma-type team. With Curry healthy, they have enough firepower and experience to win a tough series.
However, advancing past the second round would require either Curry turning back the clock completely or a massive midseason trade. As currently constructed, Golden State looks like a second-round exit once again, similar to 2025.
Bold predictions for the 2025-26 season
Here are a few forecasts beyond record and playoff finish:
Stephen Curry leads the NBA in free-throw percentage again
Curry has led the league five times already, including last season. His technique, focus, and stamina at the line aren’t going anywhere. Pencil him in for a 94% clip this year.
Jimmy Butler makes the All-Defensive second team
While Butler is known for his playoff heroics, his defense often gets overshadowed in the regular season. Expect a renewed focus this year, especially with Golden State needing his grit against wings like Anthony Edwards and Luka Doncic.
Jonathan Kuminga gets traded by the deadline
The “mystery” surrounding Kuminga’s holdout points toward an eventual split. Golden State can’t afford to let a promising young talent rot on the sidelines.
Jonathan Kuminga isn’t budging on his stance and has no interest in returning to Golden State, per @BrettSiegelNBA
This will never end….😔 pic.twitter.com/rBQEGDHSuZ
— Playoff GSW (@PlayoffGSW) August 14, 2025
Expect the front office to flip him for a veteran forward or guard before the season starts.
Draymond Green misses 20+ games with injuries
At 35, Draymond’s body has endured years of physical play. While he remains a defensive mastermind, nagging injuries will likely sideline him for a chunk of the season.
Warriors coaching staff shake-up after the season
If Golden State exits in the second round again, expect changes. While Steve Kerr is unlikely to be fired outright, there could be shifts in the assistant coaching staff, perhaps even Kerr stepping into a front-office role down the line if the franchise begins a rebuild.
The big picture: A legacy year for Curry
The 2025-26 season is as much about Curry’s legacy as it is about the Warriors’ championship hopes. At 37 years old, every game, every playoff run matters. Chasing a fifth championship remains the goal, but Curry’s ability to keep the Warriors relevant in an evolving NBA landscape is already a testament to his greatness.
This photo of Steph Curry with his 4 rings 💍🔥
(📸: @byDVNLLN) pic.twitter.com/XAPu9ITN30
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) July 28, 2023
Golden State is at a crossroads: one path leads to another deep playoff push and maybe one final Finals appearance; the other points toward decline and eventual rebuilding. With Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green beside him, Curry isn’t going down quietly.
For fans, this season promises drama, nostalgia, and maybe a few heart-stopping nights at Chase Center. The dynasty may be on its last chapter, but it’s not finished yet.
