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As the WNBA's highly anticipated 2024 postseason kicks off, fans are eager to see if the defending champion Las Vegas Aces can continue their dominance with a three-peat, if the New York Liberty can capitalize on their regular-season success or if a surprise team will emerge. After a thrilling regular season, every team in the WNBA playoff picture brings its own narrative. Here’s my breakdown and predictions for each series.
First round predictions
(1) New York Liberty vs. (8) Atlanta Dream
The Liberty have been the top team all season, and they started the WNBA playoffs strong with an 83-69 win over the Dream on Sunday. With the Liberty led by Breanna Stewart (who finished third in the WNBA MVP voting), New York has both the offensive firepower and defensive versatility to handle Atlanta. The Dream, while resilient, don’t seem to have enough to stop New York’s deep roster. The two teams square off again Tuesday in New York for Game 2 of the best-of-three series.
Prediction: The Liberty will sweep the series 2-0.
(4) Las Vegas Aces vs. (5) Seattle Storm
Las Vegas, fresh off their back-to-back championships, showed their championship DNA with a convincing 78-67 win in Game 1 against Seattle. The Aces, behind unanimous WNBA MVP A’Ja Wilson’s dominance, have too much firepower for the Storm to overcome. Seattle’s defense will continue to sruggle to contain Wilson and Tiffany Hayes, and their offense doesn’t have enough depth to compete over the course of the series. The series could be decided on Tuesday when the Aces face the Storm again at home.
Prediction: Las Vegas will win 2-0.
(2) Minnesota Lynx vs. (7) Phoenix Mercury
Minnesota looked dominant in their 102-95 win against the Mercury in Game 1. Napheesa Collier’s MVP-caliber season (She finished second in voting) has carried the Lynx this far, and her leadership will be the difference in this series. Phoenix, despite Diana Taurasi’s and Brittney Griner’s efforts, lacks the depth to keep pace with Minnesota. The Lynx play the Mercury at home in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Prediction: Minnesota wins the series 2-1.
(3) Connecticut Sun vs. (6) Indiana Fever
The Fever are a team on the rise, going 11-5 to close out the season, and Caitlin Clark has been electric. However, the Sun’s defense and coaching proved too much for the Fever in a 93-69 Game 1 win for Connecticut on Sunday. While Indiana might steal a game thanks to Clark’s brilliance, the Sun’s overall team defense and experience should see them through. The two teams play in Game 2 on Wednesday in Connecticut.
Prediction: Connecticut wins 2-1.
Semi-finals predictions
The first games of the semi-finals are scheduled for Sunday, Sept. 29.
(1) New York Liberty vs. (4) Las Vegas Aces
In what might be the most anticipated matchup of the WNBA playoffs, the Liberty and Aces square off in a battle of titans. New York has been one of the best, if not the best team all season, but Las Vegas is peaking at the right time. A’Ja Wilson’s dominance, supported by Hayes’ and Chelsea Gray’s sharpshooting, will push the Liberty to the brink. However, with Stewart and Leonie Fiebich leading the charge, the Liberty should be able to outlast the defending champs in a five-game thriller. The latter put up 21-points in Game 1 of the first round.
Prediction: New York wins the series 3-2.
(2) Minnesota Lynx vs. (3) Connecticut Sun
This series will come down to Collier’s ability to break through the Sun’s defense. The Lynx have the tools to compete, and Collier has been playing some of the best basketball of her career. While Connecticut’s defense will keep them in games, the Lynx’s balanced attack and Collier’s leadership will prove to be the difference in a hard-fought series.
Prediction: Minnesota wins the series 3-1.
WNBA Finals prediction
(1) New York Liberty vs. (2) Minnesota Lynx
This matchup brings together two teams that have dominated in different ways throughout the season, and will be a rematch of this year's WNBA Commissioner's Cup.
The Liberty have been the best team on paper, but the Lynx have the momentum and Collier’s leadership, as well as a previous 94-89 Commissioner's Cup win against the Liberty backing them up. While Stewart’s MVP-like play and the rest of the Liberty’s supporting cast will keep New York in the series, Minnesota’s team chemistry and depth will ultimately carry them to victory.
The Lynx have consistently risen to the occasion in the playoffs, and this year will be no different. Collier is making her case for Finals MVP, and her stellar all-around play will lead Minnesota to their first championship since 2017.
Prediction: Minnesota wins the WNBA Finals 3-2.
The 2024 WNBA Playoffs are shaping up to be one of the most exciting in league history. With powerhouse teams like the Liberty and Aces facing off, and surprise teams like the Lynx and Fever pushing the envelope, anything is possible. But when it’s all said and done, I believe the Minnesota Lynx will raise the trophy thanks to the incredible play of Collier.
