The Toronto Maple Leafs cannot afford players to experience any regression in 2024-25. The Maple Leafs looked like they may finally be turning a corner in 2022-23 when they advanced to the second round of the playoffs. However, it was the same old situation in 2023-24 when the Boston Bruins defeated them in Game 7 of the first round. The Leafs don't have much help on the way except their free-agent signings, which could spell trouble if their current players regress.
It'll be a bad winter in Toronto if the Maple Leafs fall any farther. The fans and media are already at their breaking point with the team's core. Another disappointing season without extensions to John Tavares and Mitch Marner may be the beginning of the disbanding of that core. So, how can the Maple Leafs ensure they improve on last season?
The Leafs need Joseph Woll to step up as the new de facto starting goaltender. They'll also need Auston Matthews to prove the captaincy switch was the move they needed to turn things around. It won't be easy, and regression from some of their veterans may make it even more difficult.
John Tavares: From Maple Leafs captain to third-line?
By all accounts, the Maple Leafs giving John Tavares' captaincy to Auston Matthews was well-received. However, it's difficult not to see this hurting the mindset of Tavares entering the 2024-25 season. Becoming captain of the Leafs has been Tavares' dream since he was a toddler sleeping in his team pajamas. The dream is no more, with Tavares' “C” becoming an “A” in 2024-25.
How does this look for a 34-year-old entering the final season of his contract in October? Tavares regressed from 80 points to 65 last season, which could only worsen in 2024-25. Towards the end of the season, it became clear that Tavares was losing players willing to be his linemates, as William Nylander and Mitch Marner took turns switching positions on Matthews' wing.
The emergence of Max Domi as a valuable player for the Leafs has put new head coach Craig Berube into a position of piecing together Toronto's lineup. Domi looked good alongside Marner in the playoffs when Matthews was hurt. It could create the option of elevating Nylander to the first line and slotting Marner alongside Domi on the second. Marner and Matthews have been linemates for a while, but Berube will be open to any changes.
During his recent episode of the 32 Thoughts podcast, Elliotte Friedman wondered if the captaincy stripping could make it easier for the Leafs to push Tavares further down the lineup. It was pure speculation from Friedman, but it does bring up an interesting idea. If Tavares now plays on the third line to inject more speed into their top six, his offensive production could take a massive decline. Tavares won't have nearly as many points without Marner or Nylander on his wing.
Chris Tanev isn't getting any younger
It won't be a name that Maple Leafs fans want to see on this list, but Chris Tanev is a definite regression candidate. The 34-year-old signed a six-year contract with the Leafs this past offseason. The Leafs are banking on Tanev continuing his success for a few more seasons before eating the remainder of the deal. However, there are some signs they won't get the duration out of Tanev that they hope.
Tanev had a sub-46% Corsi at the end of his Vancouver Canucks tenure but revitalized it with the Calgary Flames. He climbed to a 60.70% mark in his second-last Flames season, which is stellar for a 33-year-old defenseman. It dropped to 50 last season with the Flames, before they traded him to the Dallas Stars at the deadline. Tanev climbed to a 55.80% Corsi in his 19 games with the Stars before having a successful playoff run.
Morgan Rielly and Timothy Liljegren were the only Leafs defensemen with a Corsi above 50% last season. Two of those players aren't looked upon fondly by the fanbase for their defensive play but excel on offense. Tanev's numbers improved on a good defensive team in Calgary but fell when they dropped off. He also had poor numbers in his last few years with the Canucks.
The Maple Leafs and their fans believe Tanev will join the team and become a savior. However, Tanev has shown a history of not being able to get the job done without support around him. Have the Leafs done enough for Tanev to succeed in 2024-25 and beyond? Or will he be another alleged No. 1 defenseman for the Maple Leafs who would've been better suited for a second-pair role?
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