Despite being dangerously close to .500 near the end of March, the New York Islanders turned on the jets in the final month of the 2023-24 National Hockey League season. Under Patrick Roy's leadership, the Isles won 10 of their last 13 games, usurping the Philadelphia Flyers for the No. 3 berth in the Metropolitan Division and separating themselves from the pack in a wild divisional race that literally came right down to the wire.
But it was a similar story in the postseason; for the second straight year, the Islanders were beaten in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs by the Carolina Hurricanes. This time around, it took only five games after the Hurricanes jumped out to a 3-0 series lead. Although the Isles stayed alive with an overtime triumph in Game 4, a loss in Raleigh spelled the end of another solid campaign in New York.
After back-to-back trips to the Eastern Conference Final — and consecutive losses to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning — the Islanders have struggled to make any sort of noise in the postseason. They failed to advance at all in 2021-22 before bowing out twice to the Hurricanes.
Ahead of the 2024-25 campaign, there is still hope on Long Island that this team can advance to the dance, and reverse the bad fortune of the last few years. But in order to do that, the front office has an important offseason with a few key decisions to make. Here are three moves the Islanders must make this offseason.
Either trade 1st-round pick at NHL draft or take best C available
Somewhat surprisingly, the Islanders haven't selected in the first-round of the NHL draft since 2019. And for that reason, the team's pipeline is one of the weaker ones in the NHL, with ESPN ranking it as low as No. 31 earlier in the offseason. There are a few players who project to be decent NHL players, including William Dufour, who won the Memorial Cup as the top team in junior hockey with the Saint John Sea Dogs in 2022.
As well, Matthew Maggio, Alex Jefferies, Calle Odelius, Danny Nelson and Ruslan Iskhakov could all play for the Islanders at some point in the next few seasons, but none of them were drafted in the first-round. It's absolutely key that the Islanders hit on both their first and second round picks in 2024 to help improve a glaringly wanting prospect pipeline.
Most of those players are wingers, as well, and the organization could really use some center depth for the future. For that reason, they could target a player like 18-year-old Michael Hage, who ripped up the Chicago Steel in the United States Hockey League, scoring 33 goals and 42 assists for 75 points in 54 games. He led the team in goals, assists and points, and earned All-USHL First Team honors.
Equipped with the No. 20 selection in the 2024 NHL Draft in Las Vegas after a draft-pick trade with the Chicago Blackhawks back on May 24, the front office will most likely pick a scoring center if they decide to keep the pick. But that might not be the case.
In 2022, president of hockey operations Lou Lamoriello traded the team's first-round pick to the Montreal Canadiens for then 22-year-old defenseman Alexander Romanov. The Russian D-man has already proven to be a key piece of the blue line, and although it would be wise for the front office to snag a few good young players in the draft, they could also explore moving the selection.
And if that happens, and they do decide to move the 2024 first-rounder, the front office should swing for the fences.
Explore a deal for Mitch Marner or Nikolaj Ehlers
Despite the desperate need for the Islanders to improve their prospect pipeline, there have been rumblings that the franchise could instead decide to trade the pick. Another top-six forward would make a lot of sense, especially as the roster has struggled to score goals over the last couple of seasons.
Mitch Marner, who was again villainized after a poor postseason showing, could be traded before next season. And bringing in a player of the Toronto Maple Leafs forwards caliber would make an immediate impact. The problem could be Marner's $10.9 million cap hit, which would be difficult for the Isles to make work. As well, New York would have to part with the No. 18 pick as well as a good young player and probably one of their top defensemen.
Nikolaj Ehlers, who himself is ready for a change of scenery away from the Winnipeg Jets, has also seen his name swirling in trade rumors. Another scoring forward who still has some game, the speedy Danish forward has one season remaining on his contract at $6 million. He's still only 28-years-old, would be cheaper than Marner, and could potentially re-sign in Long Island.
It will certainly be interesting to see if the Islanders front office keeps the No. 18 pick on June 28 in Las Vegas, or decides to try to bring a difference-making player to Long Island.
Trade Jean-Gabriel Pageau
The Islanders have a few heart and soul players on the roster who are aging and approaching the final years of their deals. That includes all of Kyle Palmieri, Brock Nelson and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who were all around when the Islanders came within one victory of advancing to the Stanley Cup Final in 2021.
But some hard decisions need to be made. Palmieri, who was excellent down the stretch, is 33-years-old and an unrestricted free agent next summer. Nelson, 32, is in the same boat. But JG Pageau, who still has another two years left on his deal at $5 million AAV, could be the one who ends up expendable.
On his latest NHL Trade Board, Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli included Pageau as high as No. 13.
“Eleven months ago, the Islanders traded a second-round pick to Chicago to take Josh Bailey’s $5 million cap hit off their hands. Last week, the Islanders traded down in the first-round – which is ultra rare one month out from the Draft – and received an extra second-round pick in the process. Will Lou Lamoriello use that extra capital in an attempt to entice someone to take Pageau?” wrote the hockey insider earlier in June.
“The difference between Pageau and Bailey is that Pageau has an extra year remaining. The Blackhawks bought out Bailey. Pageau still has game left, but not at that price, and the Isles only have $6 million in space to add five more players.”
Based on Seravalli's reporting, as well as speculation across the league, it's a matter of when Pageau gets dealt, not if. But it will be intriguing to see if either of Palmieri or Nelson end up getting moved as well.
For the first time in five years, the Islanders have a first-round pick. Although going half a decade without one will surely hamper this squad in the future, there's an opportunity to restock the cupboards come June 28, and that's probably what the front office will be doing. Regardless, this roster will be competitive next year, but how much so be will directly correlated to the moves made in Long Island this offseason.
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