The first-round series between the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz delivered tons of drama and excitement, with the Nuggets pulling out a hard-fought Game 7 victory after a wild final sequence.
After surviving a war of attrition against Donovan Mitchell and the upstart Jazz, Denver now faces the daunting task of trying to solve Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and the second-seeded Los Angeles Clippers in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Clippers were tested by Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, but eventually prevailed after six games. With Leonard, George, the league’s best second unit, and a championship-winning coach at the helm, LA has long been considered by experts as a championship favorite.
Denver enters the series as a significant underdog, with the Clippers having the more talented and deeper lineup. The Nuggets are also coming off a grueling first-round series and will have had just one day off before facing a well-rested Clippers squad.
But that doesn’t mean that Nuggets head coach Michael Malone’s team doesn’t stand a chance of toppling the juggernaut Clippers. With their stars playing at a high level and LA also having its own struggles in the playoffs, the Nuggets have more than a puncher’s chance of pulling an upset and sending the Clippers to an early exit.
Here are some of the reasons why a Nuggets series win is possible.
1. Nikola Jokic is primed for a monster series
While all the talk during their series against the Jazz focused on Murray and his torrid shooting, the Nuggets’ Serbian big man was just as instrumental in their success. Jokic averaged 26.7 points on 51.5% shooting to go with 8.1 rebounds and 5.4 assists in seven games against Utah, when he was primarily guarded by two-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert.
In Game 7, with their season on the line, Jokic erupted for 30 points on 12-of-23 shooting, 14 rebounds, and four assists, including the basket that proved to be the game-winner in the final seconds over Gobert. While the Clippers are known for having several good wing defenders, none of them are capable of guarding a big man who can score, facilitate, and stretch defenses like Jokic.
The task of trying to contain The Joker will likely fall on Ivica Zubac. Despite showing promise early in his career, he is no Gobert, and Jokic should be able to assert his might whenever matched up against the young Zubac. Clippers coach Doc Rivers could also throw guys like Montrezl Harrell, JaMychal Green, and perhaps even Joakim Noah against Jokic, but he should have an easier time against them compared to his battles against Gobert. For the Nuggets to have any chance of pulling the rug from under the Clippers, Jokic has to dominate the Clippers’ big men.
2. The Clippers could fall into complacency
After watching Doncic drain a game-winning 3-pointer to tie their series in Game 4, it seems as if the Clippers have finally flipped the switch and played to their potential. They demolished the Mavs in Game 5, 154-111, before taking care of business with a 111-97 win in Game 6 to send Dallas packing.
However, the Clippers' dominance in their last two games against the Mavs, paired with an extra day of rest before facing the Nuggets, could cause LA to turn off that proverbial switch. They relied on the all-around brilliance of Leonard for most of the series against Dallas, especially as Paul George struggled to find his shot. But while a steady diet of Leonard was enough to take them past the Mavs, the Nuggets will be a tougher opponent.
Leonard is a two-time champion and reigning Finals MVP who will get his usual numbers. But if his supporting cast does not match his high-level performance, the Nuggets are capable of taking advantage. The team boasts one of the few lineups that can match the depth of the Clippers. Denver has players like rookie Michael Porter Jr., Gary Harris, Monte Morris, and Jerami Grant who are capable of making an impact and wresting control if the Clippers become complacent and fall asleep at the wheel. The return of Harris gave the Nuggets a big boost defensively against the Jazz, and he'll be tasked with guarding guys like Leonard and George.
3. Jamal Murray will rise to the occasion again
If Damian Lillard was the MVP of the seeding games, then a case could be made for Murray to be the MVP of the first round. Despite his struggles in Game 7, the 23-year-old Canadian still averaged 31.6 points on a scorching 55.0% shooting along with 5.6 rebounds and 6.3 assists in seven games against the Jazz. There was little the Utah defense could do to stop him, and the only thing that seemed to slow him down was a sore quad, which bothered him in Game 7.
The Clippers, however, are not the Jazz, and they are a menace when it comes to defending the perimeter. With Leonard, George, and Patrick Beverley likely taking turns guarding him in the series, Murray’s hot shooting could cool off against LA. But the same was also said of Doncic heading into their first-round series, and the 21-year-old Slovenian averaged 31.0 points on 50.0% shooting, 9.8 rebounds, and 8.7 assists in his first playoff series.
For the Nuggets to take the Clippers down, Murray has to continue going supernova like he did in the first round and prove that he can also do it while being shadowed by three of the best defenders in the league.
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