UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane continues on the prelims with a fight between Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and Matheus Camilo in the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Al-Selwady-Camilo prediction and pick.
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (15-4) returns looking to rebound from a third-round knockout loss to Loik Radzhabov in his UFC debut earlier this year. Having built a reputation for tactical consistency and composure, he aims to secure his first official UFC victory as he comes into his fight this weekend against Matheus Camilo.
Matheus Camilo (9-3) enters UFC 321 looking to rebound from a second-round submission loss to Gabriel Green in his debut this past May. Hungry to capture his first UFC victory and showcase his full potential, he aims to prove he belongs at lightweight as he comes into his fight this weekend against Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady.
Here are the UFC 321 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 321 odds: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady-Matheus Camilo odds
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady: -108
Matheus Camilo: -112
Over 1.5 rounds: -200
Under 1.5 rounds: +154
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Why Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady will win
- Last Fight: (L) Loik Radzhabov – KO/TKO R3
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 10 (8 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady has the perfect stylistic tools to get back on track with a win over Matheus Camilo at UFC 321. The former Brave CF champion blends disciplined striking with effective takedowns, averaging nearly one per round, which should keep the Brazilian off balance.
Camilo’s struggles defending submissions and control time were exposed in his UFC debut loss to Gabriel Green. Al-Selwady, who trains out of Fortis MMA, thrives in grinding fights—pressuring forward, crowding distance, and forcing opponents to defend under fatigue.
Technically, Al-Selwady’s crisp jab and low kicks help him maintain command on the feet. Once he closes the distance, his cage wrestling and positional control will likely neutralize Camilo’s fluid jiu-jitsu transitions, minimizing any high-variance ground scrambles.
Expect the Jordanian to dictate tempo early and steadily accumulate points through clinch work and short-range striking. While Camilo may flash offense in striking exchanges, Al-Selwady’s experience and fight IQ give him the edge in managing momentum swings. Over three rounds, his durability and positional awareness should generate a dominant decision victory—reestablishing himself as a composed technician and making a statement in the lightweight division this Saturday in Abu Dhabi.
Why Matheus Camilo will win
- Last Fight: (L) Gabe Green – SUB R2
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 6 (4 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Matheus Camilo has the striking diversity and finishing instinct to pull off an upset against Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady at UFC 321. Training out of Xtreme Couture, the 24-year-old Brazilian has refined his boxing and counterpunching, combining speed with deceptive power to punish incoming wrestlers.
Al-Selwady often pressures forward, but that aggressive style leaves openings during entries. Camilo’s timing and body-target combinations can exploit those gaps, forcing the Jordanian into defensive exchanges rather than dictating the tempo. Once Camilo establishes range, his sharp kicks and fluid hand combinations allow him to control rhythm and offset volume.
Camilo’s jiu-jitsu and scrambling have also evolved significantly since his debut. He’s far more active off his back now—using hip frames, butterfly hooks, and quick reversals rather than settling in guard—making Al-Selwady’s top control less effective if the fight hits the ground.
The key for Camilo will be maintaining composure and not overextending in early exchanges. If he capitalizes on Al-Selwady’s predictable pressure and forces prolonged striking battles, his technique and accuracy should shine. Expect a close but high-paced fight, with Camilo outlanding Al-Selwady on the feet en route to a decision or late stoppage win at UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi.
Final Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady-Matheus Camilo prediction & pick
Matheus Camilo enters UFC 321 as an underdog but carries the tools to outwork Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady over three rounds. His striking accuracy (48%) and defensive awareness give him a technical advantage in exchanges, especially against an opponent who absorbs more damage than he lands.
The Brazilian “Jaguar” thrives on pressure and combination striking, rapidly building volume while maintaining strong takedown transitions. Against Al-Selwady—whose takedown defense sits at just 20%—Camilo’s wrestling entry chains and timing on scrambles can flip control positions and keep the fight in favorable range.
Expect Camilo to mix body kicks and straight punches early to chip away at Al-Selwady’s forward movement. If Al-Selwady commits to his usual grinding approach, Camilo can counter with angles and attacks off the break to gradually frustrate his opponent.
The Xtreme Couture prospect has shown growth and maturity since his debut, and this matchup provides an ideal test of his composure. His speed, precision, and ability to adapt mid-fight should allow him to dictate pace and output. Over fifteen minutes, Camilo’s sharper striking and control in scrambles point toward a unanimous decision victory, cementing his first UFC win and putting the lightweight division on notice.
Final Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady-Matheus Camilo Prediction & Pick: Matheus Camilo (-112), Over 1.5 Rounds (-200)
