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Duke looks to return to the Final Four as they face Alabama. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Alabama-Duke prediction and pick.
Alabama is 28-8 on the year and was third in the SEC. This would earn them a two-seed in the NCAA tournament. In the first round, they would face Robert Morris, and while there would be a struggle, Alabama would hold on to win the game 90-81. They would then face St. Mary's in the second round and would take an 80-66 win. Last time out, Alabama faced BYU in the Sweet 16. Alabama dominated the game, leading by 11 points at the end of the first half. They would go on to win the game 113-88.
Meanwhile, Duke is 34-3 on the year, and were the ACC regular season and tournament champions. They would receive a one-seed in the NCAA tournament. They would open up with a 93-49 victory over Mount St. Mary's before dominating Baylor 89-66. In their last game, Duke faced Arizona. It was a tight first half, but Duke would pull away for a six-point lead at the end of the first half. Duke would not give up that lead, as they won the game 100-93.
Here are the Alabama-Duke College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
2025 March Madness Tournament Odds: Alabama-Duke Odds
Alabama: +6.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +230
Duke: -6.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -285
Over: 173.5 (-108)
Under: 173.5 (-112)
How to Watch Alabama vs. Duke
Time: 8:49 PM ET/ 5:49 PM PT
TV: TBS/truTV
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
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Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread/Win
Alabama is ranked sixth in KenPom's current rankings. They are fourth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency this year. Alabama has been great on offense this year. They are first in the nation in points per game this year while sitting sixth in shooting efficiency this year. Further, they are seventh in the nation in three-point attempts made per game while also sitting seventh in free throws made per game this year. Finally, Alabama leads the nation in rebounds per game this year.
Alabama is led by Mark Sears, who leads the team in both scoring and assists this year. He comes in with 19 points per game while adding 5.1 assists per game this year. Further, he has three rebounds and 0.9 steals per game. Meanwhile, Aden Holloway comes in with 11.6 points per game this year, while adding 1.9 rebounds and two assists per game this year.
In the frontcourt, Grant Nelson leads the team in rebounding this year. Nelson comes into the game with 7.6 rebounds per game, while he adds 11.5 points per game, with 1.6 assists and 1.2 blocks per game. Further, Clifford Omoruyi has been solid in the frontcourt. He comes into the game with eight points, 6.6 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game this year.
Why Duke Will Cover The Spread/Win
Duke is ranked first in KenPom's current rankings. They are first in adjusted offensive efficiency this year while sitting fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Duke has been amazing on offense this year. They are ninth in the nation in points per game this year while sitting second in the nation in shooting efficiency this year. Further, Duke is ninth in the nation in three-point percentage, while moving the ball well. Duke is 14th in the nation in assists per game and third in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Cooper Flagg leads the way for Duke, leading the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks this year. He comes into the game with 19 points per game, with 7.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. He is joined in the backcourt by Kon Knueppel. Knueppel is scoring 14.2 points per game while adding 3.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists this year.
Meanwhile, Tyrese Proctor is scoring 12.4 points per game while adding three rebounds and 2.3 assists per game this year. Further, Sion James is scoring 8.6 points per game, while adding 4.1 rebounds and 3.1 assists. Finally, Khaman Maluach has been solid this year as well. He is scoring 8.5 points per game while adding 6.7 rebounds per game. Further, he also had 1.3 blocks per game.
Final Alabama-Duke Prediction & Pick
This should be a great game between two quality offensive teams. Both teams are top ten in points per game and shooting efficiency. Both teams also shoot well from three. Alabama has been solid against the three this year though. They are 13th in the nation against the three this year. Duke is 36th in the nation against the three this year. Further, Alabama is 46th in the nation in opponent shooting efficiency, while Duke is first. Duke is better on the defensive end of the court than Alabama, but Alabama is strong enough to keep this one close.
Final Alabama-Duke Prediction & Pick: Alabama +6.5 (-102)
