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The Houston Astros are on the road to take on the Baltimore Orioles Thursday night. Check out our MLB odds series as we hand out an Astros-Orioles prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Astros-Orioles Projected Starters
Spencer Arrighetti vs. Corbin Burnes
Spencer Arrighetti (5-11) with a 5.20 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 110.2 innings pitched, 134K/52BB, .255 oBA
Last Start: vs. Chicago White Sox: Loss, 5.2 innings, 7 hits, 4 runs, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 11 starts, 6.09 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 54.2 innings pitched, 64K/29BB, .275 oBA
Corbin Burnes (12-5) with a 3.10 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 153.2 innings pitched, 144K/38BB, .227 oBA
Last Start: vs. Boston Red Sox: Loss, 4 innings, 10 hits, 8 runs, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 13 starts, 2.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 77.1 innings pitched, 80K/20BB, .257 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Orioles Odds
Houston Astros: +1.5 (-156)
Moneyline: +134
Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+130)
Moneyline: -158
Over: 8 (-118)
Under: 8 (-104)
How to Watch Astros vs. Orioles
Article Continues Below
Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15 PM PT
TV: Space City Home Network, MASN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
Spencer Arrighetti does not have the best numbers, but his strikeouts are pretty elite. He has a strikeout rate of 27.1 percent, and a lot of that is thanks to what he has done this month. Arrighetti has struck out 30 batters in 18.2 innings this month, and he has a 3.38 ERA. Arrighetti has done a good job on the mound, and he needs to continue that against the Orioles. If he can rack up the strikeouts, he will be able to lead the Orioles to a win.
Burnes had a bad start against the Red Sox, but this month as a whole has not been kind to him. He has allowed five, three, and right runs in his three starts in August, and his ERA is 9.00. The Astros are batting .261 this month, and they have an OPS of .762. With Burnes struggling, the Astros have to take advantage of that. If the Astros can score a few runs off Burnes, they will win this game.
Why The Orioles Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Orioles have their ace on the mound. He is coming off his worst start of the season, but I would not expect that to be regular occurrence. Burnes is not the type of pitcher that is going to give up that many hits often. In fact, Burnes is in 68th percentile in xBA, 91st percentile in chase rate, 74th percentile in whiff rate, and he does a great job limiting the barrels and hard hits. If Burnes can flush his bad outing against Boston, the Orioles will be able to win this game.
Baltimore needs to stay patient at the plate in this game. Arrighetti has been doing a good job lately, but the rookie has some command issues. His walk rate is over 10 percent, and he does not get too many batters to chase. The Orioles have one of the better and more complete lineups in the MLB, so they should have no problem laying off those pitches out of the zone. If they can do that, they will find a few barrels and win this game.
Final Astros-Orioles Prediction & Pick
Burnes is struggling, but I do not think that will continue in this game. I am going to take the Orioles to win this game straight up Thursday night.
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Final Astros-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Orioles ML (-158)
